PETROLEOS MEXICANOS 65 Probability of Future Bond Price Finishing Under 86.45
| 71654QCG5 | 89.25 8.57 8.76% |
PETROLEOS |
PETROLEOS Target Price Odds to finish below 86.45
The tendency of PETROLEOS Bond price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 86.45 or more in 90 days |
| 89.25 | 90 days | 86.45 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of PETROLEOS to drop to 86.45 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This PETROLEOS MEXICANOS 65 probability density function shows the probability of PETROLEOS Bond to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of PETROLEOS MEXICANOS price to stay between 86.45 and its current price of 89.25 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon PETROLEOS MEXICANOS 65 has a beta of -0.2. This usually implies as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding PETROLEOS are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, PETROLEOS MEXICANOS 65 is likely to outperform the market. Additionally PETROLEOS MEXICANOS 65 has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. PETROLEOS Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for PETROLEOS
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as PETROLEOS MEXICANOS. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the bond market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.PETROLEOS Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. PETROLEOS is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the PETROLEOS's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold PETROLEOS MEXICANOS 65, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of PETROLEOS within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.07 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.2 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.59 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.07 |
PETROLEOS Technical Analysis
PETROLEOS's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. PETROLEOS Bond technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of PETROLEOS MEXICANOS 65. In general, you should focus on analyzing PETROLEOS Bond price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
PETROLEOS Predictive Forecast Models
PETROLEOS's time-series forecasting models is one of many PETROLEOS's bond analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary PETROLEOS's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the bond market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards PETROLEOS in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, PETROLEOS's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from PETROLEOS options trading.
Other Information on Investing in PETROLEOS Bond
PETROLEOS financial ratios help investors to determine whether PETROLEOS Bond is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in PETROLEOS with respect to the benefits of owning PETROLEOS security.