US74965LAA98 Probability of Future Bond Price Finishing Under 93.04

74965LAA9   91.59  6.28  6.42%   
74965LAA9's future price is the expected price of 74965LAA9 instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of US74965LAA98 performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out 74965LAA9 Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, 74965LAA9 Correlation, 74965LAA9 Hype Analysis, 74965LAA9 Volatility, 74965LAA9 History as well as 74965LAA9 Performance.
  
Please specify 74965LAA9's target price for which you would like 74965LAA9 odds to be computed.

74965LAA9 Target Price Odds to finish below 93.04

The tendency of 74965LAA9 Bond price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay under  93.04  after 90 days
 91.59 90 days 93.04 
near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of 74965LAA9 to stay under  93.04  after 90 days from now is near 1 (This US74965LAA98 probability density function shows the probability of 74965LAA9 Bond to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of US74965LAA98 price to stay between its current price of  91.59  and  93.04  at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon 74965LAA9 has a beta of 0.15. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, 74965LAA9 average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding US74965LAA98 will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally US74965LAA98 has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   74965LAA9 Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for 74965LAA9

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as US74965LAA98. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the bond market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
90.7191.5992.47
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
82.4393.1794.05
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
88.8789.7590.62
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
93.0696.56100.07
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as 74965LAA9. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against 74965LAA9's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, 74965LAA9's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in US74965LAA98.

74965LAA9 Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. 74965LAA9 is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the 74965LAA9's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold US74965LAA98, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of 74965LAA9 within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.11
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.15
σ
Overall volatility
1.20
Ir
Information ratio -0.21

74965LAA9 Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of 74965LAA9 for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for US74965LAA98 can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
US74965LAA98 generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days

74965LAA9 Technical Analysis

74965LAA9's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. 74965LAA9 Bond technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of US74965LAA98. In general, you should focus on analyzing 74965LAA9 Bond price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

74965LAA9 Predictive Forecast Models

74965LAA9's time-series forecasting models is one of many 74965LAA9's bond analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary 74965LAA9's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the bond market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about US74965LAA98

Checking the ongoing alerts about 74965LAA9 for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for US74965LAA98 help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
US74965LAA98 generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days

Other Information on Investing in 74965LAA9 Bond

74965LAA9 financial ratios help investors to determine whether 74965LAA9 Bond is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in 74965LAA9 with respect to the benefits of owning 74965LAA9 security.