SM ENERGY 6625 Probability of Future Bond Price Finishing Under 96.69
| 78454LAP5 | 97.97 2.17 2.17% |
78454LAP5 |
78454LAP5 Target Price Odds to finish below 96.69
The tendency of 78454LAP5 Bond price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 96.69 or more in 90 days |
| 97.97 | 90 days | 96.69 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of 78454LAP5 to drop to 96.69 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This SM ENERGY 6625 probability density function shows the probability of 78454LAP5 Bond to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of SM ENERGY 6625 price to stay between 96.69 and its current price of 97.97 at the end of the 90-day period is about 1.51 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon 78454LAP5 has a beta of 0.0654. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, 78454LAP5 average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding SM ENERGY 6625 will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally SM ENERGY 6625 has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. 78454LAP5 Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for 78454LAP5
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as SM ENERGY 6625. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the bond market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.78454LAP5 Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. 78454LAP5 is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the 78454LAP5's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold SM ENERGY 6625, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of 78454LAP5 within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.04 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.07 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.93 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.13 |
78454LAP5 Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of 78454LAP5 for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for SM ENERGY 6625 can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| SM ENERGY 6625 generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |
78454LAP5 Technical Analysis
78454LAP5's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. 78454LAP5 Bond technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of SM ENERGY 6625. In general, you should focus on analyzing 78454LAP5 Bond price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
78454LAP5 Predictive Forecast Models
78454LAP5's time-series forecasting models is one of many 78454LAP5's bond analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary 78454LAP5's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the bond market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about SM ENERGY 6625
Checking the ongoing alerts about 78454LAP5 for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for SM ENERGY 6625 help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| SM ENERGY 6625 generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |
Other Information on Investing in 78454LAP5 Bond
78454LAP5 financial ratios help investors to determine whether 78454LAP5 Bond is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in 78454LAP5 with respect to the benefits of owning 78454LAP5 security.