Smurfit Kappa Group Odds of Future Bond Price Finishing Under 102.31
| 832724AB4 | 102.39 0.05 0.05% |
Smurfit |
Smurfit Target Price Odds to finish below 102.31
The tendency of Smurfit Bond price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 102.31 or more in 90 days |
| 102.39 | 90 days | 102.31 | about 13.4 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Smurfit to drop to 102.31 or more in 90 days from now is about 13.4 (This Smurfit Kappa Group probability density function shows the probability of Smurfit Bond to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Smurfit Kappa Group price to stay between 102.31 and its current price of 102.39 at the end of the 90-day period is about 6.39 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Smurfit has a beta of 0.0446. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, Smurfit average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Smurfit Kappa Group will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Smurfit Kappa Group has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Smurfit Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Smurfit
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Smurfit Kappa Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the bond market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Smurfit Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Smurfit is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Smurfit's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Smurfit Kappa Group, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Smurfit within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.01 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.04 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.33 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.51 |
Smurfit Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Smurfit for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Smurfit Kappa Group can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Smurfit Kappa Group generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |
Smurfit Technical Analysis
Smurfit's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Smurfit Bond technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Smurfit Kappa Group. In general, you should focus on analyzing Smurfit Bond price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Smurfit Predictive Forecast Models
Smurfit's time-series forecasting models is one of many Smurfit's bond analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Smurfit's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the bond market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Smurfit Kappa Group
Checking the ongoing alerts about Smurfit for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Smurfit Kappa Group help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Smurfit Kappa Group generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |
Other Information on Investing in Smurfit Bond
Smurfit financial ratios help investors to determine whether Smurfit Bond is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Smurfit with respect to the benefits of owning Smurfit security.