US84858DAA63 Probability of Future Bond Price Finishing Under 91.57
| 84858DAA6 | 92.80 0.20 0.22% |
84858DAA6 |
84858DAA6 Target Price Odds to finish below 91.57
The tendency of 84858DAA6 Bond price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 91.57 or more in 90 days |
| 92.80 | 90 days | 91.57 | about 33.67 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of 84858DAA6 to drop to 91.57 or more in 90 days from now is about 33.67 (This US84858DAA63 probability density function shows the probability of 84858DAA6 Bond to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of US84858DAA63 price to stay between 91.57 and its current price of 92.8 at the end of the 90-day period is about 29.92 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon 84858DAA6 has a beta of 0.17. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, 84858DAA6 average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding US84858DAA63 will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally US84858DAA63 has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. 84858DAA6 Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for 84858DAA6
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as US84858DAA63. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the bond market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.84858DAA6 Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. 84858DAA6 is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the 84858DAA6's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold US84858DAA63, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of 84858DAA6 within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.0063 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.17 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.60 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.05 |
84858DAA6 Technical Analysis
84858DAA6's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. 84858DAA6 Bond technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of US84858DAA63. In general, you should focus on analyzing 84858DAA6 Bond price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
84858DAA6 Predictive Forecast Models
84858DAA6's time-series forecasting models is one of many 84858DAA6's bond analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary 84858DAA6's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the bond market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards 84858DAA6 in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, 84858DAA6's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from 84858DAA6 options trading.
Other Information on Investing in 84858DAA6 Bond
84858DAA6 financial ratios help investors to determine whether 84858DAA6 Bond is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in 84858DAA6 with respect to the benefits of owning 84858DAA6 security.