SUNCOR ENERGY INC Chance of Future Bond Price Finishing Under 112.71
| 86722TAB8 | 114.66 0.00 0.00% |
SUNCOR |
SUNCOR Target Price Odds to finish below 112.71
The tendency of SUNCOR Bond price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 112.71 or more in 90 days |
| 114.66 | 90 days | 112.71 | about 64.89 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of SUNCOR to drop to 112.71 or more in 90 days from now is about 64.89 (This SUNCOR ENERGY INC probability density function shows the probability of SUNCOR Bond to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of SUNCOR ENERGY INC price to stay between 112.71 and its current price of 114.66 at the end of the 90-day period is about 25.76 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon SUNCOR has a beta of 0.0718. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, SUNCOR average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding SUNCOR ENERGY INC will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally SUNCOR ENERGY INC has an alpha of 0.0205, implying that it can generate a 0.0205 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). SUNCOR Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for SUNCOR
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as SUNCOR ENERGY INC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the bond market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.SUNCOR Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. SUNCOR is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the SUNCOR's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold SUNCOR ENERGY INC, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of SUNCOR within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.02 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.07 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.04 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.07 |
SUNCOR Technical Analysis
SUNCOR's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. SUNCOR Bond technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of SUNCOR ENERGY INC. In general, you should focus on analyzing SUNCOR Bond price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
SUNCOR Predictive Forecast Models
SUNCOR's time-series forecasting models is one of many SUNCOR's bond analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary SUNCOR's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the bond market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards SUNCOR in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, SUNCOR's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from SUNCOR options trading.
Other Information on Investing in SUNCOR Bond
SUNCOR financial ratios help investors to determine whether SUNCOR Bond is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in SUNCOR with respect to the benefits of owning SUNCOR security.