VALERO ENERGY PORATION Chance of Future Bond Price Finishing Over 96.97
| 91913YAY6 | 97.39 1.79 1.80% |
VALERO |
VALERO Target Price Odds to finish over 96.97
The tendency of VALERO Bond price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above 96.97 in 90 days |
| 97.39 | 90 days | 96.97 | under 95 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of VALERO to stay above 96.97 in 90 days from now is under 95 (This VALERO ENERGY PORATION probability density function shows the probability of VALERO Bond to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of VALERO ENERGY PORATION price to stay between 96.97 and its current price of 97.39 at the end of the 90-day period is about 6.96 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon VALERO has a beta of 0.0892. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, VALERO average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding VALERO ENERGY PORATION will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally VALERO ENERGY PORATION has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. VALERO Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for VALERO
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as VALERO ENERGY PORATION. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the bond market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.VALERO Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. VALERO is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the VALERO's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold VALERO ENERGY PORATION, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of VALERO within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.04 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.09 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.95 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.2 |
VALERO Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of VALERO for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for VALERO ENERGY PORATION can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| VALERO generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |
VALERO Technical Analysis
VALERO's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. VALERO Bond technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of VALERO ENERGY PORATION. In general, you should focus on analyzing VALERO Bond price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
VALERO Predictive Forecast Models
VALERO's time-series forecasting models is one of many VALERO's bond analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary VALERO's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the bond market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about VALERO ENERGY PORATION
Checking the ongoing alerts about VALERO for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for VALERO ENERGY PORATION help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| VALERO generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |
Other Information on Investing in VALERO Bond
VALERO financial ratios help investors to determine whether VALERO Bond is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in VALERO with respect to the benefits of owning VALERO security.