Morgan Stanley Government Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Under 7.48
| USGAX Fund | USD 6.99 0.02 0.29% |
Morgan |
Morgan Stanley Target Price Odds to finish below 7.48
The tendency of Morgan Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 7.48 after 90 days |
| 6.99 | 90 days | 7.48 | about 89.17 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Morgan Stanley to stay under $ 7.48 after 90 days from now is about 89.17 (This Morgan Stanley Government probability density function shows the probability of Morgan Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Morgan Stanley Government price to stay between its current price of $ 6.99 and $ 7.48 at the end of the 90-day period is about 48.87 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Morgan Stanley Government has a beta of -0.15. This usually implies as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Morgan Stanley are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Morgan Stanley Government is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Morgan Stanley Government has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Morgan Stanley Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Morgan Stanley
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Morgan Stanley Government. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Morgan Stanley Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Morgan Stanley is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Morgan Stanley's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Morgan Stanley Government, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Morgan Stanley within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.11 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.15 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.33 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.29 |
Morgan Stanley Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Morgan Stanley for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Morgan Stanley Government can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Morgan Stanley generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Morgan Stanley Government generated five year return of -1.0% | |
| This fund keeps most of the net assets in exotic instruments. |
Morgan Stanley Technical Analysis
Morgan Stanley's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Morgan Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Morgan Stanley Government. In general, you should focus on analyzing Morgan Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Morgan Stanley Predictive Forecast Models
Morgan Stanley's time-series forecasting models is one of many Morgan Stanley's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Morgan Stanley's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Morgan Stanley Government
Checking the ongoing alerts about Morgan Stanley for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Morgan Stanley Government help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Morgan Stanley generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Morgan Stanley Government generated five year return of -1.0% | |
| This fund keeps most of the net assets in exotic instruments. |
Other Information on Investing in Morgan Mutual Fund
Morgan Stanley financial ratios help investors to determine whether Morgan Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Morgan with respect to the benefits of owning Morgan Stanley security.
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