United States Oil Etf Probability of Future Etf Price Finishing Under 73.21
| USO Etf | USD 74.25 1.05 1.43% |
United |
United States Target Price Odds to finish below 73.21
The tendency of United Etf price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 73.21 or more in 90 days |
| 74.25 | 90 days | 73.21 | about 57.49 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of United States to drop to $ 73.21 or more in 90 days from now is about 57.49 (This United States Oil probability density function shows the probability of United Etf to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of United States Oil price to stay between $ 73.21 and its current price of $74.25 at the end of the 90-day period is about 14.72 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon United States has a beta of 0.0733. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, United States average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding United States Oil will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally United States Oil has an alpha of 0.0188, implying that it can generate a 0.0188 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). United States Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for United States
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as United States Oil. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of United States' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
United States Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. United States is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the United States' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold United States Oil, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of United States within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.02 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.07 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.59 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.04 |
United States Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of United States for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for United States Oil can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| United States Oil generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| United States Oil has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Reported Net Loss for the year was (1.29 B) with loss before taxes, overhead, and interest of (1.27 B). | |
| United States Oil generated-11.0 ten year return of -11.0% | |
| Latest headline from seekingalpha.com: U.S. crude stockpiles rose 4.7M barrels last week, API says | |
| This fund keeps all of the net assets in exotic instruments |
United States Technical Analysis
United States' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. United Etf technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of United States Oil. In general, you should focus on analyzing United Etf price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
United States Predictive Forecast Models
United States' time-series forecasting models is one of many United States' etf analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary United States' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the etf market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about United States Oil
Checking the ongoing alerts about United States for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for United States Oil help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| United States Oil generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| United States Oil has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Reported Net Loss for the year was (1.29 B) with loss before taxes, overhead, and interest of (1.27 B). | |
| United States Oil generated-11.0 ten year return of -11.0% | |
| Latest headline from seekingalpha.com: U.S. crude stockpiles rose 4.7M barrels last week, API says | |
| This fund keeps all of the net assets in exotic instruments |
Check out United States Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, United States Correlation, United States Hype Analysis, United States Volatility, United States History as well as United States Performance. You can also try the Instant Ratings module to determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
The market value of United States Oil is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of United that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of United States' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is United States' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because United States' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect United States' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between United States' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if United States is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, United States' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.