Trimegah Karya (Indonesia) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 66.77
| UVCR Stock | 66.00 1.00 1.54% |
Trimegah |
Trimegah Karya Target Price Odds to finish below 66.77
The tendency of Trimegah Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under 66.77 after 90 days |
| 66.00 | 90 days | 66.77 | about 22.16 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Trimegah Karya to stay under 66.77 after 90 days from now is about 22.16 (This Trimegah Karya Pratama probability density function shows the probability of Trimegah Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Trimegah Karya Pratama price to stay between its current price of 66.00 and 66.77 at the end of the 90-day period is about 5.39 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Trimegah Karya Pratama has a beta of -0.0548. This usually implies as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Trimegah Karya are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Trimegah Karya Pratama is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Trimegah Karya Pratama has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Trimegah Karya Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Trimegah Karya
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Trimegah Karya Pratama. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Trimegah Karya Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Trimegah Karya is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Trimegah Karya's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Trimegah Karya Pratama, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Trimegah Karya within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.17 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.05 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.94 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.09 |
Trimegah Karya Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Trimegah Karya for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Trimegah Karya Pratama can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Trimegah Karya generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Trimegah Karya has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| About 64.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders |
Trimegah Karya Technical Analysis
Trimegah Karya's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Trimegah Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Trimegah Karya Pratama. In general, you should focus on analyzing Trimegah Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Trimegah Karya Predictive Forecast Models
Trimegah Karya's time-series forecasting models is one of many Trimegah Karya's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Trimegah Karya's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Trimegah Karya Pratama
Checking the ongoing alerts about Trimegah Karya for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Trimegah Karya Pratama help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Trimegah Karya generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Trimegah Karya has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| About 64.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Trimegah Stock
Trimegah Karya financial ratios help investors to determine whether Trimegah Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Trimegah with respect to the benefits of owning Trimegah Karya security.