Vipshop Holdings (Brazil) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 40.53
| V1IP34 Stock | BRL 37.50 0.76 1.99% |
Vipshop |
Vipshop Holdings Target Price Odds to finish below 40.53
The tendency of Vipshop Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under R$ 40.53 after 90 days |
| 37.50 | 90 days | 40.53 | about 56.47 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Vipshop Holdings to stay under R$ 40.53 after 90 days from now is about 56.47 (This Vipshop Holdings Limited probability density function shows the probability of Vipshop Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Vipshop Holdings price to stay between its current price of R$ 37.50 and R$ 40.53 at the end of the 90-day period is about 29.93 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Vipshop Holdings Limited has a beta of -0.13. This entails as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Vipshop Holdings are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Vipshop Holdings Limited is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Vipshop Holdings Limited has an alpha of 0.1647, implying that it can generate a 0.16 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Vipshop Holdings Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Vipshop Holdings
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Vipshop Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Vipshop Holdings Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Vipshop Holdings is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Vipshop Holdings' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Vipshop Holdings Limited, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Vipshop Holdings within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.16 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.13 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.84 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.01 |
Vipshop Holdings Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Vipshop Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Vipshop Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Vipshop Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 135.8 M |
Vipshop Holdings Technical Analysis
Vipshop Holdings' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Vipshop Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Vipshop Holdings Limited. In general, you should focus on analyzing Vipshop Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Vipshop Holdings Predictive Forecast Models
Vipshop Holdings' time-series forecasting models is one of many Vipshop Holdings' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Vipshop Holdings' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Vipshop Holdings in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Vipshop Holdings' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Vipshop Holdings options trading.
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Vipshop Stock
When determining whether Vipshop Holdings is a strong investment it is important to analyze Vipshop Holdings' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Vipshop Holdings' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Vipshop Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Vipshop Holdings Backtesting, Vipshop Holdings Valuation, Vipshop Holdings Correlation, Vipshop Holdings Hype Analysis, Vipshop Holdings Volatility, Vipshop Holdings History as well as Vipshop Holdings Performance. You can also try the Equity Valuation module to check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data.