Virgin Wines (UK) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 37.02
| VINO Stock | 34.00 0.50 1.45% |
Virgin |
Virgin Wines Target Price Odds to finish below 37.02
The tendency of Virgin Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under 37.02 after 90 days |
| 34.00 | 90 days | 37.02 | about 37.64 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Virgin Wines to stay under 37.02 after 90 days from now is about 37.64 (This Virgin Wines UK probability density function shows the probability of Virgin Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Virgin Wines UK price to stay between its current price of 34.00 and 37.02 at the end of the 90-day period is about 30.88 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Virgin Wines has a beta of 0.22. This entails as returns on the market go up, Virgin Wines average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Virgin Wines UK will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Virgin Wines UK has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Virgin Wines Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Virgin Wines
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Virgin Wines UK. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Virgin Wines Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Virgin Wines is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Virgin Wines' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Virgin Wines UK, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Virgin Wines within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.38 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.22 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.58 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.41 |
Virgin Wines Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Virgin Wines for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Virgin Wines UK can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Virgin Wines UK generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Virgin Wines UK is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| About 69.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors |
Virgin Wines Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Virgin Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Virgin Wines' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Virgin Wines' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 58.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 18.4 M |
Virgin Wines Technical Analysis
Virgin Wines' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Virgin Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Virgin Wines UK. In general, you should focus on analyzing Virgin Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Virgin Wines Predictive Forecast Models
Virgin Wines' time-series forecasting models is one of many Virgin Wines' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Virgin Wines' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Virgin Wines UK
Checking the ongoing alerts about Virgin Wines for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Virgin Wines UK help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Virgin Wines UK generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Virgin Wines UK is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| About 69.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors |
Additional Tools for Virgin Stock Analysis
When running Virgin Wines' price analysis, check to measure Virgin Wines' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Virgin Wines is operating at the current time. Most of Virgin Wines' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Virgin Wines' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Virgin Wines' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Virgin Wines to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.