Valley National Bancorp Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 10.24
| VLY Stock | USD 10.68 0.01 0.09% |
Valley |
Valley National Target Price Odds to finish below 10.24
The tendency of Valley Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 10.24 or more in 90 days |
| 10.68 | 90 days | 10.24 | about 90.81 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Valley National to drop to $ 10.24 or more in 90 days from now is about 90.81 (This Valley National Bancorp probability density function shows the probability of Valley Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Valley National Bancorp price to stay between $ 10.24 and its current price of $10.68 at the end of the 90-day period is about 6.38 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.08 . This entails as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Valley National will likely underperform. Additionally Valley National Bancorp has an alpha of 0.1364, implying that it can generate a 0.14 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Valley National Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Valley National
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Valley National Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Valley National Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Valley National is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Valley National's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Valley National Bancorp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Valley National within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.14 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 2.08 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.75 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.11 |
Valley National Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Valley National for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Valley National Bancorp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| About 73.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from patch.com: Last Call For An Iconic Hudson Valley Holiday Tradition PM |
Valley National Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Valley Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Valley National's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Valley National's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 509.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 891.2 M |
Valley National Technical Analysis
Valley National's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Valley Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Valley National Bancorp. In general, you should focus on analyzing Valley Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Valley National Predictive Forecast Models
Valley National's time-series forecasting models is one of many Valley National's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Valley National's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Valley National Bancorp
Checking the ongoing alerts about Valley National for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Valley National Bancorp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| About 73.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from patch.com: Last Call For An Iconic Hudson Valley Holiday Tradition PM |
Additional Tools for Valley Stock Analysis
When running Valley National's price analysis, check to measure Valley National's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Valley National is operating at the current time. Most of Valley National's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Valley National's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Valley National's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Valley National to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.