VULCAN MATERIALS (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 251.53
| VMC Stock | 266.00 4.00 1.53% |
VULCAN |
VULCAN MATERIALS Target Price Odds to finish below 251.53
The tendency of VULCAN Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 251.53 or more in 90 days |
| 266.00 | 90 days | 251.53 | about 82.44 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of VULCAN MATERIALS to drop to 251.53 or more in 90 days from now is about 82.44 (This VULCAN MATERIALS probability density function shows the probability of VULCAN Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of VULCAN MATERIALS price to stay between 251.53 and its current price of 266.0 at the end of the 90-day period is about 12.54 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon VULCAN MATERIALS has a beta of 0.17. This entails as returns on the market go up, VULCAN MATERIALS average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding VULCAN MATERIALS will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally VULCAN MATERIALS has an alpha of 0.2527, implying that it can generate a 0.25 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). VULCAN MATERIALS Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for VULCAN MATERIALS
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as VULCAN MATERIALS. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of VULCAN MATERIALS's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
VULCAN MATERIALS Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. VULCAN MATERIALS is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the VULCAN MATERIALS's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold VULCAN MATERIALS, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of VULCAN MATERIALS within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.25 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.17 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 20.17 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.08 |
VULCAN MATERIALS Technical Analysis
VULCAN MATERIALS's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. VULCAN Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of VULCAN MATERIALS. In general, you should focus on analyzing VULCAN Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
VULCAN MATERIALS Predictive Forecast Models
VULCAN MATERIALS's time-series forecasting models is one of many VULCAN MATERIALS's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary VULCAN MATERIALS's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards VULCAN MATERIALS in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, VULCAN MATERIALS's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from VULCAN MATERIALS options trading.
Additional Tools for VULCAN Stock Analysis
When running VULCAN MATERIALS's price analysis, check to measure VULCAN MATERIALS's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy VULCAN MATERIALS is operating at the current time. Most of VULCAN MATERIALS's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of VULCAN MATERIALS's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move VULCAN MATERIALS's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of VULCAN MATERIALS to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.