Waste Management (Brazil) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 409.54
| W1MC34 Stock | 649.63 3.27 0.51% |
Waste |
Waste Management Target Price Odds to finish below 409.54
The tendency of Waste Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 409.54 or more in 90 days |
| 649.63 | 90 days | 409.54 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Waste Management to drop to 409.54 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Waste Management probability density function shows the probability of Waste Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Waste Management price to stay between 409.54 and its current price of 649.63 at the end of the 90-day period is about 98.0 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Waste Management has a beta of -0.42. This entails as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Waste Management are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Waste Management is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Waste Management has an alpha of 0.2382, implying that it can generate a 0.24 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Waste Management Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Waste Management
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Waste Management. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Waste Management Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Waste Management is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Waste Management's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Waste Management, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Waste Management within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.24 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.42 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 27.71 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.06 |
Waste Management Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Waste Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Waste Management's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Waste Management's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 416.1 M | |
| Short Long Term Debt | 708 M |
Waste Management Technical Analysis
Waste Management's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Waste Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Waste Management. In general, you should focus on analyzing Waste Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Waste Management Predictive Forecast Models
Waste Management's time-series forecasting models is one of many Waste Management's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Waste Management's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Waste Management in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Waste Management's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Waste Management options trading.
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Waste Stock
When determining whether Waste Management is a strong investment it is important to analyze Waste Management's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Waste Management's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Waste Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Waste Management Backtesting, Waste Management Valuation, Waste Management Correlation, Waste Management Hype Analysis, Waste Management Volatility, Waste Management History as well as Waste Management Performance. For information on how to trade Waste Stock refer to our How to Trade Waste Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio Analyzer module to portfolio analysis module that provides access to portfolio diagnostics and optimization engine.