Wells Fargo Advantage Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Under 15.07
| WGLSX Fund | USD 15.44 0.07 0.46% |
Wells |
Wells Fargo Target Price Odds to finish below 15.07
The tendency of Wells Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 15.07 or more in 90 days |
| 15.44 | 90 days | 15.07 | about 11.5 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Wells Fargo to drop to $ 15.07 or more in 90 days from now is about 11.5 (This Wells Fargo Advantage probability density function shows the probability of Wells Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Wells Fargo Advantage price to stay between $ 15.07 and its current price of $15.44 at the end of the 90-day period is about 45.54 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Wells Fargo has a beta of 0.97. This entails Wells Fargo Advantage market returns are sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Wells Fargo is expected to follow. Additionally Wells Fargo Advantage has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Wells Fargo Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Wells Fargo
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Wells Fargo Advantage. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Wells Fargo's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Wells Fargo Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Wells Fargo is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Wells Fargo's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Wells Fargo Advantage, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Wells Fargo within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.08 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.97 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.27 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.09 |
Wells Fargo Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Wells Fargo for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Wells Fargo Advantage can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| The fund keeps about 29.58% of its net assets in cash |
Wells Fargo Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Wells Mutual Fund often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Wells Fargo's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Wells Fargo's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Wells Fargo Technical Analysis
Wells Fargo's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Wells Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Wells Fargo Advantage. In general, you should focus on analyzing Wells Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Wells Fargo Predictive Forecast Models
Wells Fargo's time-series forecasting models is one of many Wells Fargo's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Wells Fargo's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Wells Fargo Advantage
Checking the ongoing alerts about Wells Fargo for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Wells Fargo Advantage help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| The fund keeps about 29.58% of its net assets in cash |
Other Information on Investing in Wells Mutual Fund
Wells Fargo financial ratios help investors to determine whether Wells Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Wells with respect to the benefits of owning Wells Fargo security.
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