Willis Lease Finance Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 187.46
| WLFC Stock | USD 212.14 1.68 0.79% |
Willis |
Willis Lease Target Price Odds to finish below 187.46
The tendency of Willis Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 187.46 or more in 90 days |
| 212.14 | 90 days | 187.46 | about 74.76 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Willis Lease to drop to $ 187.46 or more in 90 days from now is about 74.76 (This Willis Lease Finance probability density function shows the probability of Willis Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Willis Lease Finance price to stay between $ 187.46 and its current price of $212.14 at the end of the 90-day period is about 15.83 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 3.43 . This entails as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Willis Lease will likely underperform. Additionally Willis Lease Finance has an alpha of 0.6936, implying that it can generate a 0.69 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Willis Lease Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Willis Lease
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Willis Lease Finance. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Willis Lease Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Willis Lease is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Willis Lease's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Willis Lease Finance, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Willis Lease within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.69 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 3.43 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 37.90 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.23 |
Willis Lease Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Willis Lease for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Willis Lease Finance can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Willis Lease Finance appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Willis Lease Finance is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| About 58.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders | |
| On 21st of November 2024 Willis Lease paid $ 0.25 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Willis Sustainable Fuels Limited Enters into Master Services Agreement with McDermott |
Willis Lease Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Willis Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Willis Lease's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Willis Lease's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 6.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 23.6 M |
Willis Lease Technical Analysis
Willis Lease's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Willis Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Willis Lease Finance. In general, you should focus on analyzing Willis Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Willis Lease Predictive Forecast Models
Willis Lease's time-series forecasting models is one of many Willis Lease's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Willis Lease's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Willis Lease Finance
Checking the ongoing alerts about Willis Lease for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Willis Lease Finance help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Willis Lease Finance appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Willis Lease Finance is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| About 58.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders | |
| On 21st of November 2024 Willis Lease paid $ 0.25 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Willis Sustainable Fuels Limited Enters into Master Services Agreement with McDermott |
Check out Willis Lease Backtesting, Willis Lease Valuation, Willis Lease Correlation, Willis Lease Hype Analysis, Willis Lease Volatility, Willis Lease History as well as Willis Lease Performance. You can also try the Odds Of Bankruptcy module to get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years.
Is Trading Companies & Distributors space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Willis Lease. If investors know Willis will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Willis Lease listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.582 | Dividend Share 0.25 | Earnings Share 14.11 | Revenue Per Share 80.335 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.378 |
The market value of Willis Lease Finance is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Willis that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Willis Lease's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Willis Lease's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Willis Lease's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Willis Lease's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Willis Lease's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Willis Lease is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Willis Lease's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.