Wartsila Oyj (Finland) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 17.99
| WRT1V Stock | EUR 18.26 0.01 0.05% |
Wartsila |
Wartsila Oyj Target Price Odds to finish over 17.99
The tendency of Wartsila Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above € 17.99 in 90 days |
| 18.26 | 90 days | 17.99 | about 43.93 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Wartsila Oyj to stay above € 17.99 in 90 days from now is about 43.93 (This Wartsila Oyj Abp probability density function shows the probability of Wartsila Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Wartsila Oyj Abp price to stay between € 17.99 and its current price of €18.26 at the end of the 90-day period is about 14.04 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Wartsila Oyj Abp has a beta of -0.14. This entails as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Wartsila Oyj are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Wartsila Oyj Abp is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Wartsila Oyj Abp has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Wartsila Oyj Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Wartsila Oyj
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Wartsila Oyj Abp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Wartsila Oyj's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Wartsila Oyj Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Wartsila Oyj is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Wartsila Oyj's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Wartsila Oyj Abp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Wartsila Oyj within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.12 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.14 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.72 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.09 |
Wartsila Oyj Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Wartsila Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Wartsila Oyj's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Wartsila Oyj's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 590 M |
Wartsila Oyj Technical Analysis
Wartsila Oyj's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Wartsila Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Wartsila Oyj Abp. In general, you should focus on analyzing Wartsila Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Wartsila Oyj Predictive Forecast Models
Wartsila Oyj's time-series forecasting models is one of many Wartsila Oyj's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Wartsila Oyj's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Wartsila Oyj in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Wartsila Oyj's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Wartsila Oyj options trading.
Other Information on Investing in Wartsila Stock
Wartsila Oyj financial ratios help investors to determine whether Wartsila Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Wartsila with respect to the benefits of owning Wartsila Oyj security.