Morgan Stanley China Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Over 21.18
| XCAFX Fund | USD 15.73 0.06 0.38% |
Morgan |
Morgan Stanley Target Price Odds to finish over 21.18
The tendency of Morgan Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 21.18 or more in 90 days |
| 15.73 | 90 days | 21.18 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Morgan Stanley to move over $ 21.18 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Morgan Stanley China probability density function shows the probability of Morgan Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Morgan Stanley China price to stay between its current price of $ 15.73 and $ 21.18 at the end of the 90-day period is about 48.28 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Morgan Stanley has a beta of 0.25. This entails as returns on the market go up, Morgan Stanley average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Morgan Stanley China will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Morgan Stanley China has an alpha of 0.1498, implying that it can generate a 0.15 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Morgan Stanley Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Morgan Stanley
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Morgan Stanley China. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Morgan Stanley Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Morgan Stanley is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Morgan Stanley's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Morgan Stanley China, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Morgan Stanley within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.15 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.25 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.93 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.05 |
Morgan Stanley Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Morgan Mutual Fund often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Morgan Stanley's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Morgan Stanley's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Morgan Stanley Technical Analysis
Morgan Stanley's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Morgan Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Morgan Stanley China. In general, you should focus on analyzing Morgan Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Morgan Stanley Predictive Forecast Models
Morgan Stanley's time-series forecasting models is one of many Morgan Stanley's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Morgan Stanley's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Morgan Stanley in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Morgan Stanley's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Morgan Stanley options trading.
Other Information on Investing in Morgan Mutual Fund
Morgan Stanley financial ratios help investors to determine whether Morgan Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Morgan with respect to the benefits of owning Morgan Stanley security.
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