Dreyfus Alcentra Global Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Under 9.26
| XDCFX Fund | USD 9.26 0.01 0.11% |
Dreyfus |
Dreyfus Alcentra Target Price Odds to finish below 9.26
The tendency of Dreyfus Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move below current price in 90 days |
| 9.26 | 90 days | 9.26 | about 63.14 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Dreyfus Alcentra to move below current price in 90 days from now is about 63.14 (This Dreyfus Alcentra Global probability density function shows the probability of Dreyfus Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Dreyfus Alcentra has a beta of 0.021. This entails as returns on the market go up, Dreyfus Alcentra average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Dreyfus Alcentra Global will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Dreyfus Alcentra Global has an alpha of 7.0E-4, implying that it can generate a 6.63E-4 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Dreyfus Alcentra Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Dreyfus Alcentra
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Dreyfus Alcentra Global. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Dreyfus Alcentra Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Dreyfus Alcentra is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Dreyfus Alcentra's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Dreyfus Alcentra Global, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Dreyfus Alcentra within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.0007 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.02 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.02 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -1.14 |
Dreyfus Alcentra Technical Analysis
Dreyfus Alcentra's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Dreyfus Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Dreyfus Alcentra Global. In general, you should focus on analyzing Dreyfus Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Dreyfus Alcentra Predictive Forecast Models
Dreyfus Alcentra's time-series forecasting models is one of many Dreyfus Alcentra's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Dreyfus Alcentra's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Dreyfus Alcentra in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Dreyfus Alcentra's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Dreyfus Alcentra options trading.
Other Information on Investing in Dreyfus Mutual Fund
Dreyfus Alcentra financial ratios help investors to determine whether Dreyfus Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Dreyfus with respect to the benefits of owning Dreyfus Alcentra security.
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