Gamco Natural Resources Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Under 6.54
| XGNTX Fund | USD 6.49 0.02 0.31% |
GAMCO |
Gamco Natural Target Price Odds to finish below 6.54
The tendency of GAMCO Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 6.54 after 90 days |
| 6.49 | 90 days | 6.54 | about 49.46 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Gamco Natural to stay under $ 6.54 after 90 days from now is about 49.46 (This Gamco Natural Resources probability density function shows the probability of GAMCO Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Gamco Natural Resources price to stay between its current price of $ 6.49 and $ 6.54 at the end of the 90-day period is about 14.97 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Gamco Natural has a beta of 0.0603. This entails as returns on the market go up, Gamco Natural average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Gamco Natural Resources will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Gamco Natural Resources has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Gamco Natural Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Gamco Natural
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Gamco Natural Resources. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Gamco Natural's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Gamco Natural Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Gamco Natural is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Gamco Natural's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Gamco Natural Resources, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Gamco Natural within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.0099 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.06 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.13 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.17 |
Gamco Natural Technical Analysis
Gamco Natural's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. GAMCO Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Gamco Natural Resources. In general, you should focus on analyzing GAMCO Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Gamco Natural Predictive Forecast Models
Gamco Natural's time-series forecasting models is one of many Gamco Natural's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Gamco Natural's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Gamco Natural in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Gamco Natural's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Gamco Natural options trading.
Other Information on Investing in GAMCO Mutual Fund
Gamco Natural financial ratios help investors to determine whether GAMCO Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in GAMCO with respect to the benefits of owning Gamco Natural security.
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