Vaneck Cef Municipal Etf Probability of Future Etf Price Finishing Under 20.77
| XMPT Etf | USD 22.48 0.07 0.31% |
VanEck |
VanEck CEF Target Price Odds to finish below 20.77
The tendency of VanEck Etf price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 20.77 or more in 90 days |
| 22.48 | 90 days | 20.77 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of VanEck CEF to drop to $ 20.77 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This VanEck CEF Municipal probability density function shows the probability of VanEck Etf to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of VanEck CEF Municipal price to stay between $ 20.77 and its current price of $22.48 at the end of the 90-day period is about 39.46 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days VanEck CEF has a beta of 0.0292. This entails as returns on the market go up, VanEck CEF average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding VanEck CEF Municipal will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally VanEck CEF Municipal has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. VanEck CEF Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for VanEck CEF
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as VanEck CEF Municipal. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.VanEck CEF Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. VanEck CEF is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the VanEck CEF's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold VanEck CEF Municipal, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of VanEck CEF within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.0049 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.03 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.30 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.26 |
VanEck CEF Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of VanEck CEF for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for VanEck CEF Municipal can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| The fund created three year return of -4.0% | |
| VanEck CEF Municipal keeps most of the net assets in exotic instruments. |
VanEck CEF Technical Analysis
VanEck CEF's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. VanEck Etf technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of VanEck CEF Municipal. In general, you should focus on analyzing VanEck Etf price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
VanEck CEF Predictive Forecast Models
VanEck CEF's time-series forecasting models is one of many VanEck CEF's etf analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary VanEck CEF's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the etf market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about VanEck CEF Municipal
Checking the ongoing alerts about VanEck CEF for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for VanEck CEF Municipal help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| The fund created three year return of -4.0% | |
| VanEck CEF Municipal keeps most of the net assets in exotic instruments. |
Check out VanEck CEF Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, VanEck CEF Correlation, VanEck CEF Hype Analysis, VanEck CEF Volatility, VanEck CEF History as well as VanEck CEF Performance. You can also try the Piotroski F Score module to get Piotroski F Score based on the binary analysis strategy of nine different fundamentals.
The market value of VanEck CEF Municipal is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of VanEck that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of VanEck CEF's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is VanEck CEF's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because VanEck CEF's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect VanEck CEF's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between VanEck CEF's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if VanEck CEF is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, VanEck CEF's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.