Exxon Mobil Cdr Stock Chance of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 19.72
| XOM Stock | 22.07 0.38 1.69% |
Exxon |
Exxon Target Price Odds to finish below 19.72
The tendency of Exxon Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 19.72 or more in 90 days |
| 22.07 | 90 days | 19.72 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Exxon to drop to 19.72 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This EXXON MOBIL CDR probability density function shows the probability of Exxon Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of EXXON MOBIL CDR price to stay between 19.72 and its current price of 22.07 at the end of the 90-day period is about 52.98 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Exxon has a beta of 0.0796. This entails as returns on the market go up, Exxon average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding EXXON MOBIL CDR will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally EXXON MOBIL CDR has an alpha of 0.0639, implying that it can generate a 0.0639 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Exxon Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Exxon
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as EXXON MOBIL CDR. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Exxon Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Exxon is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Exxon's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold EXXON MOBIL CDR, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Exxon within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.06 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.08 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.66 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.03 |
Exxon Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Exxon Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Exxon's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Exxon's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Dividend Yield | 0.0329 | |
| Forward Annual Dividend Rate | 0.74 | |
| Shares Float | 4.4 B |
Exxon Technical Analysis
Exxon's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Exxon Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of EXXON MOBIL CDR. In general, you should focus on analyzing Exxon Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Exxon Predictive Forecast Models
Exxon's time-series forecasting models is one of many Exxon's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Exxon's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Exxon in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Exxon's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Exxon options trading.
Other Information on Investing in Exxon Stock
Exxon financial ratios help investors to determine whether Exxon Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Exxon with respect to the benefits of owning Exxon security.