Mini Dow Jones Commodity Odds of Future Commodity Price Finishing Over 43,929
| YMUSD Commodity | 44,997 171.00 0.38% |
Mini |
Mini Dow Target Price Odds to finish over 43,929
The tendency of Mini Commodity price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move above the current price in 90 days |
| 44,997 | 90 days | 44,997 | about 1.25 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Mini Dow to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 1.25 (This Mini Dow Jones probability density function shows the probability of Mini Commodity to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Mini Dow has a beta of 0.98. This entails Mini Dow Jones market returns are highly-sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Mini Dow is expected to follow. Additionally Mini Dow Jones has an alpha of 0.0029, implying that it can generate a 0.002921 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Mini Dow Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Mini Dow
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Mini Dow Jones. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the commodity market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the commodity market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Mini Dow's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Mini Dow Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Mini Dow is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Mini Dow's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Mini Dow Jones, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Mini Dow within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.98 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1,067 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.0006 |
Mini Dow Technical Analysis
Mini Dow's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Mini Commodity technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Mini Dow Jones. In general, you should focus on analyzing Mini Commodity price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Mini Dow Predictive Forecast Models
Mini Dow's time-series forecasting models is one of many Mini Dow's commodity analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Mini Dow's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the commodity market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Mini Dow in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Mini Dow's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Mini Dow options trading.