ZENITH BANK (Nigeria) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 42.79
| ZENITHBANK | 44.50 0.50 1.14% |
ZENITH |
ZENITH BANK Target Price Odds to finish below 42.79
The tendency of ZENITH Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 42.79 or more in 90 days |
| 44.50 | 90 days | 42.79 | about 88.99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of ZENITH BANK to drop to 42.79 or more in 90 days from now is about 88.99 (This ZENITH BANK PLC probability density function shows the probability of ZENITH Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of ZENITH BANK PLC price to stay between 42.79 and its current price of 44.5 at the end of the 90-day period is about 7.9 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon ZENITH BANK PLC has a beta of -0.33. This usually means as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding ZENITH BANK are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, ZENITH BANK PLC is likely to outperform the market. Additionally ZENITH BANK PLC has an alpha of 0.2669, implying that it can generate a 0.27 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). ZENITH BANK Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for ZENITH BANK
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ZENITH BANK PLC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of ZENITH BANK's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
ZENITH BANK Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. ZENITH BANK is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the ZENITH BANK's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold ZENITH BANK PLC, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of ZENITH BANK within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.27 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.33 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.64 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.06 |
ZENITH BANK Technical Analysis
ZENITH BANK's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. ZENITH Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of ZENITH BANK PLC. In general, you should focus on analyzing ZENITH Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
ZENITH BANK Predictive Forecast Models
ZENITH BANK's time-series forecasting models is one of many ZENITH BANK's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary ZENITH BANK's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards ZENITH BANK in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, ZENITH BANK's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from ZENITH BANK options trading.