Ryanair Holdings Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| 0RYA Stock | 1,534 40.00 2.68% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Ryanair Holdings plc on the next trading day is expected to be 1,489 with a mean absolute deviation of 21.36 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,303. Ryanair Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Ryanair Holdings' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Ryanair Holdings' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Ryanair Holdings fundamentals over time.
Ryanair |
Ryanair Holdings Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 1st of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Ryanair Holdings plc on the next trading day is expected to be 1,489 with a mean absolute deviation of 21.36, mean absolute percentage error of 721.24, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,303.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ryanair Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ryanair Holdings' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Ryanair Holdings Stock Forecast Pattern
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Ryanair Holdings Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Ryanair Holdings' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Ryanair Holdings' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1,486 and 1,491, respectively. We have considered Ryanair Holdings' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ryanair Holdings stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ryanair Holdings stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 124.6915 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 21.3601 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.015 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1302.9679 |
Predictive Modules for Ryanair Holdings
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ryanair Holdings plc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Ryanair Holdings
For every potential investor in Ryanair, whether a beginner or expert, Ryanair Holdings' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Ryanair Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Ryanair. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ryanair Holdings' price trends.Ryanair Holdings Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ryanair Holdings stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ryanair Holdings could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ryanair Holdings by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Ryanair Holdings plc Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Ryanair Holdings' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Ryanair Holdings' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Ryanair Holdings Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Ryanair Holdings stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Ryanair Holdings shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Ryanair Holdings stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Ryanair Holdings plc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Ryanair Holdings Risk Indicators
The analysis of Ryanair Holdings' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ryanair Holdings' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ryanair stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.47 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.28 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.5 | |||
| Variance | 6.27 | |||
| Downside Variance | 5.87 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.64 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.02) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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