Daxin Materials Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

5234 Stock  TWD 204.50  22.50  9.91%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Daxin Materials Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 192.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 7.54 and the sum of the absolute errors of 460.20. Daxin Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
A naive forecasting model for Daxin Materials is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Daxin Materials Corp value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Daxin Materials Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 2nd of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Daxin Materials Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 192.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 7.54, mean absolute percentage error of 100.24, and the sum of the absolute errors of 460.20.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Daxin Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Daxin Materials' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Daxin Materials Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Daxin MaterialsDaxin Materials Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Daxin Materials Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Daxin Materials' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Daxin Materials' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 187.66 and 196.34, respectively. We have considered Daxin Materials' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
204.50
187.66
Downside
192.00
Expected Value
196.34
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Daxin Materials stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Daxin Materials stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria122.718
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation7.5442
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.034
SAESum of the absolute errors460.1986
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Daxin Materials Corp. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Daxin Materials. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Daxin Materials

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Daxin Materials Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
200.12204.50208.88
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
170.45174.82224.95
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
201.14226.00250.86
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Daxin Materials

For every potential investor in Daxin, whether a beginner or expert, Daxin Materials' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Daxin Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Daxin. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Daxin Materials' price trends.

Daxin Materials Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Daxin Materials stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Daxin Materials could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Daxin Materials by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Daxin Materials Corp Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Daxin Materials' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Daxin Materials' current price.

Daxin Materials Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Daxin Materials stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Daxin Materials shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Daxin Materials stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Daxin Materials Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Daxin Materials Risk Indicators

The analysis of Daxin Materials' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Daxin Materials' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting daxin stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Additional Tools for Daxin Stock Analysis

When running Daxin Materials' price analysis, check to measure Daxin Materials' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Daxin Materials is operating at the current time. Most of Daxin Materials' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Daxin Materials' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Daxin Materials' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Daxin Materials to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.