Formosa Optical Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

A naive forecasting model for Formosa Optical is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Formosa Optical Technology value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Formosa Optical Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 2nd of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Formosa Optical Technology on the next trading day is expected to be 106.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.73, mean absolute percentage error of 0.93, and the sum of the absolute errors of 44.38.

Formosa Optical Stock Forecast Pattern

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Formosa Optical Price Prediction

Buy or Sell Advice

Formosa Optical Forecasted Value

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Formosa Optical stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Formosa Optical stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Formosa Optical Technology. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Formosa Optical. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Formosa Optical

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Formosa Optical Tech. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Hype Prediction Low Estimated High 107.21 108.00 108.79 Details

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 103.80 104.59 118.80 Details

Bollinger Band Projection (param) Low Middle High 105.73 106.95 108.17 Details

Other Forecasting Options for Formosa Optical

For every potential investor in Formosa, whether a beginner or expert, Formosa Optical's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Formosa Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Formosa. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Formosa Optical's price trends.

Formosa Optical Related Equities

Risk & Return

Correlation

Formosa Optical Tech Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Formosa Optical's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Formosa Optical's current price.

Formosa Optical Market Strength Events

Formosa Optical Risk Indicators

Pair Trading with Formosa Optical

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Formosa Optical position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Formosa Optical will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Additional Tools for Formosa Stock Analysis