American International Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

AINN Stock  EUR 69.89  1.47  2.06%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of American International Group on the next trading day is expected to be 68.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.65 and the sum of the absolute errors of 40.11. American Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of American International's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
A naive forecasting model for American International is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of American International Group value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

American International Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 12th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of American International Group on the next trading day is expected to be 68.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.65, mean absolute percentage error of 0.71, and the sum of the absolute errors of 40.11.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict American Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that American International's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

American International Stock Forecast Pattern

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American International Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting American International's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. American International's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 66.94 and 69.46, respectively. We have considered American International's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
69.89
68.20
Expected Value
69.46
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of American International stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent American International stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.6043
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.647
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0094
SAESum of the absolute errors40.1132
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of American International Group. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict American International. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for American International

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as American International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
68.6369.8971.15
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
68.1569.4170.67
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
69.4270.9872.54
Details

Other Forecasting Options for American International

For every potential investor in American, whether a beginner or expert, American International's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. American Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in American. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying American International's price trends.

American International Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with American International stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of American International could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing American International by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

American International Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of American International's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of American International's current price.

American International Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how American International stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading American International shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying American International stock market strength indicators, traders can identify American International Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

American International Risk Indicators

The analysis of American International's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in American International's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting american stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Additional Information and Resources on Investing in American Stock

When determining whether American International is a strong investment it is important to analyze American International's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact American International's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding American Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of American International to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the My Watchlist Analysis module to analyze my current watchlist and to refresh optimization strategy. Macroaxis watchlist is based on self-learning algorithm to remember stocks you like.
Please note, there is a significant difference between American International's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if American International is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, American International's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.