Aptose Biosciences Stock Forward View
| APTODelisted Stock | USD 2.01 0.91 82.73% |
Aptose Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of today the value of rsi of Aptose Biosciences' share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Aptose Biosciences hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Aptose Biosciences from the perspective of Aptose Biosciences response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Aptose Biosciences on the next trading day is expected to be 0.88 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.38 and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.20. Aptose Biosciences after-hype prediction price | USD 2.01 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as delisted stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Aptose |
Aptose Biosciences Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Aptose price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Aptose using various technical indicators. When you analyze Aptose charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Aptose Biosciences Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 15th of February 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Aptose Biosciences on the next trading day is expected to be 0.88 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.38, mean absolute percentage error of 0.26, and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.20.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Aptose Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Aptose Biosciences' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Aptose Biosciences Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Aptose Biosciences | Aptose Biosciences Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Aptose Biosciences stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Aptose Biosciences stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.7667 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3803 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0915 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 23.1977 |
Predictive Modules for Aptose Biosciences
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aptose Biosciences. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Aptose Biosciences' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Aptose Biosciences After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Aptose Biosciences at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Aptose Biosciences or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Aptose Biosciences, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Aptose Biosciences Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Aptose Biosciences' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Aptose Biosciences' historical news coverage. Aptose Biosciences' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 2.01 and 2.01, respectively. We have considered Aptose Biosciences' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Aptose Biosciences is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Aptose Biosciences is based on 3 months time horizon.
Aptose Biosciences Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Aptose Biosciences is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Aptose Biosciences backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Delisted Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Aptose Biosciences, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 5 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In about 5 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
2.01 | 2.01 | 0.00 |
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Aptose Biosciences Hype Timeline
Aptose Biosciences is presently traded for 2.01. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Aptose is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.0%. %. The volatility of related hype on Aptose Biosciences is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 2.01. About 25.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company recorded a loss per share of 36.38. Aptose Biosciences had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 1:30 split on the 26th of February 2025. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 5 days. Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in persons.Aptose Biosciences Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Aptose Biosciences' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Aptose Biosciences' future price movements. Getting to know how Aptose Biosciences' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Aptose Biosciences may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| GMDA | Gamida Cell | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| RUBY | Rubius Therapeutics | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| IDRA | Idera Pharmaceuticals | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| NBRVF | Nabriva Therapeutics Plc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| BCEL | Atreca Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| GRTS | Gritstone Oncology | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| ARAV | Aravive | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| RVLP | RVL Pharmaceuticals PLC | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| ONCR | Oncorus | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| AFMD | Affimed NV | 0.02 | 5 per month | 14.97 | 0.02 | 10.53 | (13.54) | 108.58 |
Aptose Biosciences Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Aptose Biosciences stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Aptose Biosciences could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Aptose Biosciences by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Aptose Biosciences Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Aptose Biosciences stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Aptose Biosciences shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Aptose Biosciences stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Aptose Biosciences entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Aptose Biosciences Risk Indicators
The analysis of Aptose Biosciences' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Aptose Biosciences' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting aptose stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 6.65 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 10.3 | |||
| Variance | 106.16 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Aptose Biosciences
The number of cover stories for Aptose Biosciences depends on current market conditions and Aptose Biosciences' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Aptose Biosciences is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Aptose Biosciences' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Aptose Biosciences Short Properties
Aptose Biosciences' future price predictability will typically decrease when Aptose Biosciences' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Aptose Biosciences often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Aptose Biosciences' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Aptose Biosciences' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 23.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 6.2 M |
Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in persons. You can also try the ETFs module to find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) from around the world.
Other Consideration for investing in Aptose Stock
If you are still planning to invest in Aptose Biosciences check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the Aptose Biosciences' history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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