Arko Corp Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| ARKO Stock | USD 7.01 0.18 2.64% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Arko Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 6.82 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.17. Arko Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Arko Corp's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Arko Corp's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Arko Corp fundamentals over time.
Arko |
Arko Corp Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Arko Corp's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 2010-12-31 | Previous Quarter 218.1 M | Current Value 240.8 M | Quarterly Volatility 113 M |
Arko Corp Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 26th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Arko Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 6.82 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.17.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Arko Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Arko Corp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Arko Corp Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Arko Corp | Arko Corp Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Arko Corp Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Arko Corp's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Arko Corp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 4.32 and 9.33, respectively. We have considered Arko Corp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Arko Corp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Arko Corp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.8258 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1503 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0227 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 9.1707 |
Predictive Modules for Arko Corp
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Arko Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Arko Corp
For every potential investor in Arko, whether a beginner or expert, Arko Corp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Arko Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Arko. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Arko Corp's price trends.Arko Corp Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Arko Corp stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Arko Corp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Arko Corp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Arko Corp Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Arko Corp's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Arko Corp's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Arko Corp Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Arko Corp stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Arko Corp shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Arko Corp stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Arko Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Arko Corp Risk Indicators
The analysis of Arko Corp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Arko Corp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting arko stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.96 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.88 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.51 | |||
| Variance | 6.29 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.24 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.52 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.26) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
When determining whether Arko Corp is a strong investment it is important to analyze Arko Corp's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Arko Corp's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Arko Stock, refer to the following important reports: Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Arko Corp to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Arko Stock, please use our How to Invest in Arko Corp guide.You can also try the Price Exposure Probability module to analyze equity upside and downside potential for a given time horizon across multiple markets.
Is Automotive Retail space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Arko Corp. If investors know Arko will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Arko Corp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.58) | Dividend Share 0.12 | Earnings Share 0.16 | Revenue Per Share 77.121 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.13) |
The market value of Arko Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Arko that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Arko Corp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Arko Corp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Arko Corp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Arko Corp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Arko Corp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Arko Corp is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Arko Corp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.