Bank Alfalah Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| BAFL Stock | 81.89 3.45 4.40% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Bank Alfalah on the next trading day is expected to be 88.92 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.14 and the sum of the absolute errors of 69.59. Bank Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Bank Alfalah stock prices and determine the direction of Bank Alfalah's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Bank Alfalah's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Bank |
Bank Alfalah Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 1st of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Bank Alfalah on the next trading day is expected to be 88.92 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.14, mean absolute percentage error of 2.57, and the sum of the absolute errors of 69.59.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Bank Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Bank Alfalah's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Bank Alfalah Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Bank Alfalah | Bank Alfalah Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Bank Alfalah Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Bank Alfalah's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Bank Alfalah's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 86.51 and 91.34, respectively. We have considered Bank Alfalah's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Bank Alfalah stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Bank Alfalah stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.0534 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.1408 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0175 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 69.5892 |
Predictive Modules for Bank Alfalah
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bank Alfalah. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Bank Alfalah
For every potential investor in Bank, whether a beginner or expert, Bank Alfalah's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Bank Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Bank. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Bank Alfalah's price trends.Bank Alfalah Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Bank Alfalah stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Bank Alfalah could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Bank Alfalah by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Bank Alfalah Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Bank Alfalah's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Bank Alfalah's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Bank Alfalah Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Bank Alfalah stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Bank Alfalah shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Bank Alfalah stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Bank Alfalah entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Bank Alfalah Risk Indicators
The analysis of Bank Alfalah's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Bank Alfalah's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting bank stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.75 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.14 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.41 | |||
| Variance | 5.82 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.16 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.29 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.61) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Bank Alfalah
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Bank Alfalah position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Bank Alfalah will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Bank Stock
Moving against Bank Stock
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Bank Alfalah could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Bank Alfalah when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Bank Alfalah - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Bank Alfalah to buy it.
The correlation of Bank Alfalah is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Bank Alfalah moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Bank Alfalah moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Bank Alfalah can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Other Information on Investing in Bank Stock
Bank Alfalah financial ratios help investors to determine whether Bank Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Bank with respect to the benefits of owning Bank Alfalah security.