Shift4 Payments Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| FOUR Stock | USD 114.95 3.25 2.91% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Shift4 Payments on the next trading day is expected to be 118.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.81 and the sum of the absolute errors of 110.16. Shift4 Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Shift4 Payments' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Shift4 Payments' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Shift4 Payments fundamentals over time.
Shift4 |
Shift4 Payments Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Shift4 Payments' financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 2019-12-31 | Previous Quarter 205 M | Current Value 1.4 B | Quarterly Volatility 405.7 M |
Shift4 Payments Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 30th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Shift4 Payments on the next trading day is expected to be 118.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.81, mean absolute percentage error of 5.06, and the sum of the absolute errors of 110.16.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Shift4 Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Shift4 Payments' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Shift4 Payments Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Shift4 Payments | Shift4 Payments Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Shift4 Payments Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Shift4 Payments' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Shift4 Payments' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 116.16 and 120.63, respectively. We have considered Shift4 Payments' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Shift4 Payments stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Shift4 Payments stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.731 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.8059 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0194 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 110.1587 |
Predictive Modules for Shift4 Payments
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Shift4 Payments. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Shift4 Payments' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Shift4 Payments
For every potential investor in Shift4, whether a beginner or expert, Shift4 Payments' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Shift4 Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Shift4. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Shift4 Payments' price trends.Shift4 Payments Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Shift4 Payments stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Shift4 Payments could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Shift4 Payments by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Shift4 Payments Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Shift4 Payments' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Shift4 Payments' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Shift4 Payments Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Shift4 Payments stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Shift4 Payments shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Shift4 Payments stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Shift4 Payments entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Shift4 Payments Risk Indicators
The analysis of Shift4 Payments' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Shift4 Payments' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting shift4 stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.62 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.4 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.31 | |||
| Variance | 5.35 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.86 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.96 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.86) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Shift4 Payments
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Shift4 Payments position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Shift4 Payments will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Shift4 Stock
Moving against Shift4 Stock
| 0.8 | EFX | Equifax | PairCorr |
| 0.71 | CVEO | Civeo Corp | PairCorr |
| 0.7 | WHLM | Wilhelmina | PairCorr |
| 0.64 | RGP | Resources Connection | PairCorr |
| 0.63 | MMS | Maximus | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Shift4 Payments could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Shift4 Payments when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Shift4 Payments - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Shift4 Payments to buy it.
The correlation of Shift4 Payments is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Shift4 Payments moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Shift4 Payments moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Shift4 Payments can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Tools for Shift4 Stock Analysis
When running Shift4 Payments' price analysis, check to measure Shift4 Payments' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Shift4 Payments is operating at the current time. Most of Shift4 Payments' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Shift4 Payments' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Shift4 Payments' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Shift4 Payments to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.