GungHo Online Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

G03 Stock  EUR 18.10  0.20  1.12%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of GungHo Online Entertainment on the next trading day is expected to be 18.09 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.30 and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.54. GungHo Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of GungHo Online's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
A naive forecasting model for GungHo Online is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of GungHo Online Entertainment value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

GungHo Online Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 30th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of GungHo Online Entertainment on the next trading day is expected to be 18.09 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.30, mean absolute percentage error of 0.15, and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.54.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict GungHo Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that GungHo Online's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

GungHo Online Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest GungHo OnlineGungHo Online Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

GungHo Online Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting GungHo Online's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. GungHo Online's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 15.89 and 20.29, respectively. We have considered GungHo Online's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
18.10
18.09
Expected Value
20.29
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of GungHo Online stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent GungHo Online stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.1966
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.304
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0161
SAESum of the absolute errors18.543
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of GungHo Online Entertainment. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict GungHo Online. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for GungHo Online

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as GungHo Online Entert. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
15.9018.1020.30
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
13.3615.5619.91
Details

Other Forecasting Options for GungHo Online

For every potential investor in GungHo, whether a beginner or expert, GungHo Online's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. GungHo Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in GungHo. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying GungHo Online's price trends.

GungHo Online Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with GungHo Online stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of GungHo Online could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing GungHo Online by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

GungHo Online Entert Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of GungHo Online's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of GungHo Online's current price.

GungHo Online Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how GungHo Online stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading GungHo Online shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying GungHo Online stock market strength indicators, traders can identify GungHo Online Entertainment entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

GungHo Online Risk Indicators

The analysis of GungHo Online's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in GungHo Online's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting gungho stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in GungHo Stock

GungHo Online financial ratios help investors to determine whether GungHo Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in GungHo with respect to the benefits of owning GungHo Online security.