The Naive Prediction forecasted value of VELA TECHNOLPLC LS 0001 on the next trading day is expected to be 0.0005 with a mean absolute deviation of 0 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0. VELA Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of VELA TECHNOLPLC's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
VELA
A naive forecasting model for VELA TECHNOLPLC is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of VELA TECHNOLPLC LS 0001 value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.
VELA TECHNOLPLC Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 11th of January 2025
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of VELA TECHNOLPLC LS 0001 on the next trading day is expected to be 0.0005 with a mean absolute deviation of 0, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict VELA Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that VELA TECHNOLPLC's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
In the context of forecasting VELA TECHNOLPLC's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. VELA TECHNOLPLC's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.0005 and 0.0005, respectively. We have considered VELA TECHNOLPLC's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of VELA TECHNOLPLC stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent VELA TECHNOLPLC stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AIC
Akaike Information Criteria
34.0692
Bias
Arithmetic mean of the errors
None
MAD
Mean absolute deviation
0.0
MAPE
Mean absolute percentage error
0.0
SAE
Sum of the absolute errors
0.0
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of VELA TECHNOLPLC LS 0001. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict VELA TECHNOLPLC. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.
Predictive Modules for VELA TECHNOLPLC
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as VELA TECHNOLPLC LS. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
For every potential investor in VELA, whether a beginner or expert, VELA TECHNOLPLC's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. VELA Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in VELA. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying VELA TECHNOLPLC's price trends.
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with VELA TECHNOLPLC stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of VELA TECHNOLPLC could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing VELA TECHNOLPLC by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
VELA TECHNOLPLC LS Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of VELA TECHNOLPLC's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of VELA TECHNOLPLC's current price.
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how VELA TECHNOLPLC stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading VELA TECHNOLPLC shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying VELA TECHNOLPLC stock market strength indicators, traders can identify VELA TECHNOLPLC LS 0001 entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
VELA TECHNOLPLC financial ratios help investors to determine whether VELA Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in VELA with respect to the benefits of owning VELA TECHNOLPLC security.