JS ATIVOS Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

JSAF11 Fund   72.00  2.06  2.95%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of JS ATIVOS FINANCEIROS on the next trading day is expected to be 66.35 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.64 and the sum of the absolute errors of 100.18. Investors can use prediction functions to forecast JS ATIVOS's fund prices and determine the direction of JS ATIVOS FINANCEIROS's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, exclusively looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading.
  
A naive forecasting model for JS ATIVOS is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of JS ATIVOS FINANCEIROS value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

JS ATIVOS Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 16th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of JS ATIVOS FINANCEIROS on the next trading day is expected to be 66.35 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.64, mean absolute percentage error of 3.78, and the sum of the absolute errors of 100.18.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict JSAF11 Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that JS ATIVOS's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

JS ATIVOS Fund Forecast Pattern

JS ATIVOS Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting JS ATIVOS's Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. JS ATIVOS's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 64.76 and 67.94, respectively. We have considered JS ATIVOS's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
72.00
66.35
Expected Value
67.94
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of JS ATIVOS fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent JS ATIVOS fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.4391
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.6423
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0201
SAESum of the absolute errors100.1786
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of JS ATIVOS FINANCEIROS. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict JS ATIVOS. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for JS ATIVOS

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as JS ATIVOS FINANCEIROS. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Other Forecasting Options for JS ATIVOS

For every potential investor in JSAF11, whether a beginner or expert, JS ATIVOS's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. JSAF11 Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in JSAF11. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying JS ATIVOS's price trends.

JS ATIVOS Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with JS ATIVOS fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of JS ATIVOS could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing JS ATIVOS by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

JS ATIVOS FINANCEIROS Technical and Predictive Analytics

The fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of JS ATIVOS's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of JS ATIVOS's current price.

JS ATIVOS Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how JS ATIVOS fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading JS ATIVOS shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying JS ATIVOS fund market strength indicators, traders can identify JS ATIVOS FINANCEIROS entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

JS ATIVOS Risk Indicators

The analysis of JS ATIVOS's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in JS ATIVOS's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting jsaf11 fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.
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