Magellan Financial Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

A naive forecasting model for Magellan Financial is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Magellan Financial Group value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Magellan Financial Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 18th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Magellan Financial Group on the next trading day is expected to be 10.45 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19, mean absolute percentage error of 0.06, and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.59.

Magellan Financial Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Magellan Financial

Magellan Financial Price Prediction

Buy or Sell Advice

Magellan Financial Forecasted Value

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Magellan Financial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Magellan Financial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Magellan Financial Group. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Magellan Financial. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Magellan Financial

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Magellan Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Hype Prediction Low Estimated High 8.65 11.05 13.45 Details

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 8.51 10.91 13.31 Details

Earnings Estimates (0) Low Projected EPS High 0.18 0.23 0.28 Details

Other Forecasting Options for Magellan Financial

For every potential investor in Magellan, whether a beginner or expert, Magellan Financial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Magellan Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Magellan. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Magellan Financial's price trends.

Magellan Financial Related Equities

Risk & Return

Correlation

Magellan Financial Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Magellan Financial's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Magellan Financial's current price.

Magellan Financial Market Strength Events

Magellan Financial Risk Indicators

Additional Tools for Magellan Stock Analysis