Mega Manunggal Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| MMLP Stock | IDR 488.00 2.00 0.41% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Mega Manunggal Property on the next trading day is expected to be 490.83 with a mean absolute deviation of 10.42 and the sum of the absolute errors of 635.37. Mega Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
Mega |
Mega Manunggal Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 1st of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Mega Manunggal Property on the next trading day is expected to be 490.83 with a mean absolute deviation of 10.42, mean absolute percentage error of 166.19, and the sum of the absolute errors of 635.37.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Mega Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Mega Manunggal's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mega Manunggal Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Mega Manunggal | Mega Manunggal Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Mega Manunggal Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Mega Manunggal's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Mega Manunggal's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 488.15 and 493.52, respectively. We have considered Mega Manunggal's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Mega Manunggal stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Mega Manunggal stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 123.2237 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 10.4159 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0221 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 635.3693 |
Predictive Modules for Mega Manunggal
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Mega Manunggal Property. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Mega Manunggal
For every potential investor in Mega, whether a beginner or expert, Mega Manunggal's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Mega Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Mega. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Mega Manunggal's price trends.Mega Manunggal Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Mega Manunggal stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Mega Manunggal could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Mega Manunggal by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Mega Manunggal Property Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Mega Manunggal's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Mega Manunggal's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Mega Manunggal Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Mega Manunggal stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Mega Manunggal shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Mega Manunggal stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Mega Manunggal Property entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Mega Manunggal Risk Indicators
The analysis of Mega Manunggal's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Mega Manunggal's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting mega stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.74 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.06 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.66 | |||
| Variance | 7.06 | |||
| Downside Variance | 7.03 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.25 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.21) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Mega Manunggal financial ratios help investors to determine whether Mega Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Mega with respect to the benefits of owning Mega Manunggal security.