RATIONAL Aktiengesellscha Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

RAA Stock  EUR 841.50  8.00  0.96%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of RATIONAL Aktiengesellschaft on the next trading day is expected to be 797.81 with a mean absolute deviation of 10.71 and the sum of the absolute errors of 653.33. RATIONAL Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of RATIONAL Aktiengesellscha's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
A naive forecasting model for RATIONAL Aktiengesellscha is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of RATIONAL Aktiengesellschaft value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

RATIONAL Aktiengesellscha Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 23rd of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of RATIONAL Aktiengesellschaft on the next trading day is expected to be 797.81 with a mean absolute deviation of 10.71, mean absolute percentage error of 195.96, and the sum of the absolute errors of 653.33.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict RATIONAL Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that RATIONAL Aktiengesellscha's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

RATIONAL Aktiengesellscha Stock Forecast Pattern

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RATIONAL Aktiengesellscha Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting RATIONAL Aktiengesellscha's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. RATIONAL Aktiengesellscha's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 796.44 and 799.18, respectively. We have considered RATIONAL Aktiengesellscha's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
841.50
796.44
Downside
797.81
Expected Value
799.18
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of RATIONAL Aktiengesellscha stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent RATIONAL Aktiengesellscha stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria123.3884
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation10.7103
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0121
SAESum of the absolute errors653.328
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of RATIONAL Aktiengesellschaft. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict RATIONAL Aktiengesellscha. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for RATIONAL Aktiengesellscha

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as RATIONAL Aktiengesellscha. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
840.13841.50842.87
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
688.66690.03925.65
Details

Other Forecasting Options for RATIONAL Aktiengesellscha

For every potential investor in RATIONAL, whether a beginner or expert, RATIONAL Aktiengesellscha's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. RATIONAL Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in RATIONAL. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying RATIONAL Aktiengesellscha's price trends.

RATIONAL Aktiengesellscha Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with RATIONAL Aktiengesellscha stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of RATIONAL Aktiengesellscha could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing RATIONAL Aktiengesellscha by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

RATIONAL Aktiengesellscha Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of RATIONAL Aktiengesellscha's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of RATIONAL Aktiengesellscha's current price.

RATIONAL Aktiengesellscha Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how RATIONAL Aktiengesellscha stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading RATIONAL Aktiengesellscha shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying RATIONAL Aktiengesellscha stock market strength indicators, traders can identify RATIONAL Aktiengesellschaft entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

RATIONAL Aktiengesellscha Risk Indicators

The analysis of RATIONAL Aktiengesellscha's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in RATIONAL Aktiengesellscha's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting rational stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in RATIONAL Stock

RATIONAL Aktiengesellscha financial ratios help investors to determine whether RATIONAL Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in RATIONAL with respect to the benefits of owning RATIONAL Aktiengesellscha security.