Reservoir Media Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| RSVR Stock | USD 8.99 0.10 1.12% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Reservoir Media on the next trading day is expected to be 9.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20 and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.58. Reservoir Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Reservoir Media's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Reservoir Media's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Reservoir Media fundamentals over time.
Reservoir |
Reservoir Media Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Reservoir Media's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 2010-12-31 | Previous Quarter 18.1 M | Current Value 12.7 M | Quarterly Volatility 4.4 M |
Reservoir Media Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 23rd of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Reservoir Media on the next trading day is expected to be 9.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20, mean absolute percentage error of 0.07, and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.58.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Reservoir Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Reservoir Media's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Reservoir Media Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Reservoir Media | Reservoir Media Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Reservoir Media Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Reservoir Media's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Reservoir Media's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 6.90 and 11.41, respectively. We have considered Reservoir Media's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Reservoir Media stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Reservoir Media stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.222 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2029 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0247 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 12.5806 |
Predictive Modules for Reservoir Media
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Reservoir Media. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Reservoir Media's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Reservoir Media
For every potential investor in Reservoir, whether a beginner or expert, Reservoir Media's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Reservoir Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Reservoir. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Reservoir Media's price trends.Reservoir Media Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Reservoir Media stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Reservoir Media could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Reservoir Media by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Reservoir Media Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Reservoir Media's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Reservoir Media's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Reservoir Media Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Reservoir Media stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Reservoir Media shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Reservoir Media stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Reservoir Media entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Reservoir Media Risk Indicators
The analysis of Reservoir Media's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Reservoir Media's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting reservoir stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.69 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.1 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.24 | |||
| Variance | 5.0 | |||
| Downside Variance | 5.44 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.43 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.85) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Reservoir Media
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Reservoir Media position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Reservoir Media will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Reservoir Stock
| 0.69 | DIS | Walt Disney Aggressive Push | PairCorr |
Moving against Reservoir Stock
| 0.66 | KUKE | Kuke Music Holding | PairCorr |
| 0.62 | CRTO | Criteo Sa | PairCorr |
| 0.6 | EEX | Emerald Expositions | PairCorr |
| 0.59 | ADV | Advantage Solutions | PairCorr |
| 0.49 | IPG | Interpublic Group | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Reservoir Media could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Reservoir Media when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Reservoir Media - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Reservoir Media to buy it.
The correlation of Reservoir Media is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Reservoir Media moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Reservoir Media moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Reservoir Media can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Tools for Reservoir Stock Analysis
When running Reservoir Media's price analysis, check to measure Reservoir Media's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Reservoir Media is operating at the current time. Most of Reservoir Media's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Reservoir Media's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Reservoir Media's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Reservoir Media to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.