Silicon Motion Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| SIMO Stock | USD 52.43 0.98 1.83% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Silicon Motion Technology on the next trading day is expected to be 52.65 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.15 and the sum of the absolute errors of 70.37. Silicon Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Silicon Motion's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Silicon Motion's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Silicon Motion fundamentals over time.
Silicon |
Silicon Motion Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Silicon Motion's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 2004-12-31 | Previous Quarter 289.2 M | Current Value 313.9 M | Quarterly Volatility 117.8 M |
Silicon Motion Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 30th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Silicon Motion Technology on the next trading day is expected to be 52.65 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.15, mean absolute percentage error of 1.97, and the sum of the absolute errors of 70.37.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Silicon Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Silicon Motion's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Silicon Motion Stock Forecast Pattern
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Silicon Motion Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Silicon Motion's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Silicon Motion's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 50.23 and 55.08, respectively. We have considered Silicon Motion's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Silicon Motion stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Silicon Motion stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.7903 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.1536 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0207 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 70.3691 |
Predictive Modules for Silicon Motion
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Silicon Motion Technology. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Silicon Motion
For every potential investor in Silicon, whether a beginner or expert, Silicon Motion's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Silicon Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Silicon. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Silicon Motion's price trends.Silicon Motion Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Silicon Motion stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Silicon Motion could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Silicon Motion by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Silicon Motion Technology Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Silicon Motion's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Silicon Motion's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Silicon Motion Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Silicon Motion stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Silicon Motion shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Silicon Motion stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Silicon Motion Technology entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Silicon Motion Risk Indicators
The analysis of Silicon Motion's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Silicon Motion's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting silicon stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.89 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.51 | |||
| Variance | 6.31 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
When determining whether Silicon Motion Technology offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Silicon Motion's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Silicon Motion Technology Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Silicon Motion Technology Stock: Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Silicon Motion to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Investing Opportunities module to build portfolios using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your investing preferences.
Is Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Silicon Motion. If investors know Silicon will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Silicon Motion listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.953 | Earnings Share 2.66 | Revenue Per Share 24.268 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.233 | Return On Assets 0.0554 |
The market value of Silicon Motion Technology is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Silicon that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Silicon Motion's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Silicon Motion's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Silicon Motion's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Silicon Motion's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Silicon Motion's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Silicon Motion is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Silicon Motion's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.