Sonic Healthcare Pink Sheet Forecast - Naive Prediction

SKHHY Stock  USD 18.45  0.29  1.60%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Sonic Healthcare Ltd on the next trading day is expected to be 18.76 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.29 and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.59. Sonic Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
A naive forecasting model for Sonic Healthcare is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Sonic Healthcare Ltd value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Sonic Healthcare Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 1st of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Sonic Healthcare Ltd on the next trading day is expected to be 18.76 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.29, mean absolute percentage error of 0.13, and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.59.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Sonic Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Sonic Healthcare's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Sonic Healthcare Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

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Sonic Healthcare Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Sonic Healthcare's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Sonic Healthcare's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 16.60 and 20.92, respectively. We have considered Sonic Healthcare's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
18.45
18.76
Expected Value
20.92
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Sonic Healthcare pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Sonic Healthcare pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.0626
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.2883
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0161
SAESum of the absolute errors17.5857
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Sonic Healthcare Ltd. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Sonic Healthcare. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Sonic Healthcare

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Sonic Healthcare. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
16.2918.4520.61
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
15.0417.2019.36
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
17.3318.1819.03
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Sonic Healthcare. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Sonic Healthcare's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Sonic Healthcare's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Sonic Healthcare.

Other Forecasting Options for Sonic Healthcare

For every potential investor in Sonic, whether a beginner or expert, Sonic Healthcare's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Sonic Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Sonic. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Sonic Healthcare's price trends.

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 Risk & Return  Correlation

Sonic Healthcare Technical and Predictive Analytics

The pink sheet market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Sonic Healthcare's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Sonic Healthcare's current price.

Sonic Healthcare Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Sonic Healthcare pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Sonic Healthcare shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Sonic Healthcare pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Sonic Healthcare Ltd entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Sonic Healthcare Risk Indicators

The analysis of Sonic Healthcare's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Sonic Healthcare's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting sonic pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Additional Tools for Sonic Pink Sheet Analysis

When running Sonic Healthcare's price analysis, check to measure Sonic Healthcare's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Sonic Healthcare is operating at the current time. Most of Sonic Healthcare's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Sonic Healthcare's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Sonic Healthcare's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Sonic Healthcare to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.