Vista Oil Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| VISTAA Stock | MXN 1,122 47.82 4.09% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Vista Oil Gas on the next trading day is expected to be 1,093 with a mean absolute deviation of 24.22 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,477. Vista Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Vista Oil stock prices and determine the direction of Vista Oil Gas's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Vista Oil's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Vista |
Vista Oil Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 20th of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Vista Oil Gas on the next trading day is expected to be 1,093 with a mean absolute deviation of 24.22, mean absolute percentage error of 981.30, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,477.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Vista Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Vista Oil's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Vista Oil Stock Forecast Pattern
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Vista Oil Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Vista Oil's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Vista Oil's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1,090 and 1,097, respectively. We have considered Vista Oil's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Vista Oil stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Vista Oil stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 124.9994 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 24.2201 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0241 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1477.4253 |
Predictive Modules for Vista Oil
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Vista Oil Gas. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Vista Oil
For every potential investor in Vista, whether a beginner or expert, Vista Oil's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Vista Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Vista. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Vista Oil's price trends.Vista Oil Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Vista Oil stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Vista Oil could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Vista Oil by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Vista Oil Gas Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Vista Oil's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Vista Oil's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Vista Oil Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Vista Oil stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Vista Oil shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Vista Oil stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Vista Oil Gas entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.0344 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (1.20) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.96 | |||
| Day Median Price | 1139.96 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 1133.92 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 39.92 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (42.04) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (47.82) |
Vista Oil Risk Indicators
The analysis of Vista Oil's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Vista Oil's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting vista stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.66 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.92 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.9 | |||
| Variance | 15.24 | |||
| Downside Variance | 11.2 | |||
| Semi Variance | 8.51 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.30) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Vista Stock
When determining whether Vista Oil Gas is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Vista Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Vista Oil Gas Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Vista Oil Gas Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Vista Oil to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Economic Indicators module to top statistical indicators that provide insights into how an economy is performing.