Bigbearai Holdings Stock Performance

BBAI Stock  USD 4.20  0.10  2.44%   
The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 3.46, which signifies a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, BigBearai Holdings will likely underperform. At this point, BigBearai Holdings has a negative expected return of -0.34%. Please make sure to confirm BigBearai Holdings' skewness, day typical price, and the relationship between the maximum drawdown and daily balance of power , to decide if BigBearai Holdings performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Weakest

 
Weak
 
Strong
Over the last 90 days BigBearai Holdings has generated negative risk-adjusted returns adding no value to investors with long positions. Despite unfluctuating performance in the last few months, the Stock's basic indicators remain fairly strong which may send shares a bit higher in March 2026. The recent confusion may also be a sign of long-lasting up-swing for the firm traders. ...more

Actual Historical Performance (%)

One Day Return
(7.45)
Five Day Return
(3.76)
Year To Date Return
(29.79)
Ten Year Return
(58.29)
All Time Return
(58.29)
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Begin Period Cash Flow32.6 M
Total Cashflows From Investing Activities2.8 M

BigBearai Holdings Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you would invest  557.00  in BigBearai Holdings on November 15, 2025 and sell it today you would lose (147.00) from holding BigBearai Holdings or give up 26.39% of portfolio value over 90 days. BigBearai Holdings is currently does not generate positive expected returns and assumes 5.9476% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 90 days horizon. In different words, 53% of stocks are less volatile than BigBearai, and 99% of all traded equity instruments are projected to make higher returns than the company over the 90 days investment horizon.
  Expected Return   
       Risk  
Given the investment horizon of 90 days BigBearai Holdings is expected to under-perform the market. In addition to that, the company is 7.66 times more volatile than its market benchmark. It trades about -0.06 of its total potential returns per unit of risk. The Dow Jones Industrial is currently generating roughly 0.13 per unit of volatility.

BigBearai Holdings Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price

The tendency of BigBearai Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 4.20 90 days 4.20 
close to 99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of BigBearai Holdings to move above the current price in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This BigBearai Holdings probability density function shows the probability of BigBearai Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 3.46 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, BigBearai Holdings will likely underperform. Additionally BigBearai Holdings has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   BigBearai Holdings Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for BigBearai Holdings

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as BigBearai Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.203.979.92
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.244.7210.67
Details
4 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
6.076.677.40
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
-0.1-0.07-0.05
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as BigBearai Holdings. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against BigBearai Holdings' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, BigBearai Holdings' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in BigBearai Holdings.

BigBearai Holdings Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. BigBearai Holdings is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the BigBearai Holdings' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold BigBearai Holdings, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of BigBearai Holdings within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.55
β
Beta against Dow Jones3.46
σ
Overall volatility
0.65
Ir
Information ratio -0.06

BigBearai Holdings Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of BigBearai Holdings for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for BigBearai Holdings can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
BigBearai Holdings generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
BigBearai Holdings has high historical volatility and very poor performance
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 158.24 M. Net Loss for the year was (295.55 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 39.34 M.
BigBearai Holdings currently holds about 29.83 M in cash with (38.12 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.24.
BigBearai Holdings has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: A Look At BigBear.ai Valuation After Cantor Fitzgeralds Downgrade On Contract And Revenue Risks

BigBearai Holdings Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of BigBearai Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential BigBearai Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. BigBearai Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding233.6 M
Cash And Short Term Investments50.1 M

BigBearai Holdings Fundamentals Growth

BigBearai Stock prices reflect investors' perceptions of the future prospects and financial health of BigBearai Holdings, and BigBearai Holdings fundamentals are critical determinants of its market performance. Overall, investors pay close attention to revenue and earnings growth, profit margins, and debt levels. These fundamentals can have a significant impact on BigBearai Stock performance.

About BigBearai Holdings Performance

By evaluating BigBearai Holdings' fundamental ratios, stakeholders can gain valuable insights into BigBearai Holdings' financial health, operational efficiency, and overall profitability, helping them make informed investment and management decisions. For instance, if BigBearai Holdings has a high ROA and ROE, it suggests that the company is efficiently using its assets and equity to generate substantial profits, making it an attractive investment. Conversely, if BigBearai Holdings has a low ROA and ROE, it may indicate underlying issues in asset and equity management, signaling a need for operational improvements. Please also refer to our technical analysis and fundamental analysis pages.
Last ReportedProjected for Next Year
Days Of Inventory On Hand 297.60  264.54 
Return On Tangible Assets(3.22)(3.06)
Return On Capital Employed(1.09)(1.04)
Return On Assets(0.99)(0.94)
Return On Equity 71.62  75.20 

Things to note about BigBearai Holdings performance evaluation

Checking the ongoing alerts about BigBearai Holdings for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Stock alerts and notifications screener for BigBearai Holdings help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
BigBearai Holdings generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
BigBearai Holdings has high historical volatility and very poor performance
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 158.24 M. Net Loss for the year was (295.55 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 39.34 M.
BigBearai Holdings currently holds about 29.83 M in cash with (38.12 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.24.
BigBearai Holdings has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: A Look At BigBear.ai Valuation After Cantor Fitzgeralds Downgrade On Contract And Revenue Risks
Evaluating BigBearai Holdings' performance can involve analyzing a variety of financial metrics and factors. Some of the key considerations to evaluate BigBearai Holdings' stock performance include:
  • Analyzing BigBearai Holdings' financial statements, including its income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement, helps in understanding its overall financial health and growth potential.
  • Getting a closer look at valuation ratios like price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, and price-to-book (P/B) ratio help in understanding whether BigBearai Holdings' stock is overvalued or undervalued compared to its peers.
  • Examining BigBearai Holdings' industry or sector and how it is performing can give you an idea of its growth potential and how it is positioned relative to its competitors.
  • Evaluating BigBearai Holdings' management team can have a significant impact on its success or failure. Reviewing the track record and experience of BigBearai Holdings' management team can help you assess the Company's leadership.
  • Pay attention to analyst opinions and ratings of BigBearai Holdings' stock. These opinions can provide insight into BigBearai Holdings' potential for growth and whether the stock is currently undervalued or overvalued.
It's essential to remember that evaluating BigBearai Holdings' stock performance is not an exact science, and many factors can impact BigBearai Holdings' stock market price. Therefore, it's also important to diversify your portfolio and not rely solely on one company or stock for your investments.

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When running BigBearai Holdings' price analysis, check to measure BigBearai Holdings' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy BigBearai Holdings is operating at the current time. Most of BigBearai Holdings' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of BigBearai Holdings' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move BigBearai Holdings' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of BigBearai Holdings to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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