First Commonwealth (Germany) Performance

FCF Stock  EUR 14.70  0.20  1.38%   
On a scale of 0 to 100, First Commonwealth holds a performance score of 6. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.3, which means not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, First Commonwealth's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding First Commonwealth is expected to be smaller as well. Please check First Commonwealth's treynor ratio, value at risk, and the relationship between the sortino ratio and maximum drawdown , to make a quick decision on whether First Commonwealth's price patterns will revert.

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Mild

 
Weak
 
Strong
Compared to the overall equity markets, risk-adjusted returns on investments in First Commonwealth Financial are ranked lower than 6 (%) of all global equities and portfolios over the last 90 days. Despite nearly uncertain basic indicators, First Commonwealth reported solid returns over the last few months and may actually be approaching a breakup point. ...more
Begin Period Cash Flow395.4 M
Dividend Yield0.0296
Payout Ratio0.3467
  

First Commonwealth Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you would invest  1,289  in First Commonwealth Financial on November 2, 2025 and sell it today you would earn a total of  181.00  from holding First Commonwealth Financial or generate 14.04% return on investment over 90 days. First Commonwealth Financial is currently producing 0.2848% returns and takes up 3.6568% volatility of returns over 90 trading days. Put another way, 32% of traded stocks are less volatile than First, and 95% of all traded equity instruments are likely to generate higher returns over the next 90 trading days.
  Expected Return   
       Risk  
Assuming the 90 days horizon First Commonwealth is expected to generate 4.89 times more return on investment than the market. However, the company is 4.89 times more volatile than its market benchmark. It trades about 0.08 of its potential returns per unit of risk. The Dow Jones Industrial is currently generating roughly 0.07 per unit of risk.

First Commonwealth Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price

The tendency of First Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 14.70 90 days 14.70 
about 12.75
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of First Commonwealth to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 12.75 (This First Commonwealth Financial probability density function shows the probability of First Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days horizon First Commonwealth has a beta of 0.3. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, First Commonwealth average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding First Commonwealth Financial will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally First Commonwealth Financial has an alpha of 0.1306, implying that it can generate a 0.13 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   First Commonwealth Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for First Commonwealth

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as First Commonwealth. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
11.0414.7018.36
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
8.3712.0315.69
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
11.0614.7218.38
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
13.6214.5015.37
Details

First Commonwealth Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. First Commonwealth is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the First Commonwealth's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold First Commonwealth Financial, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of First Commonwealth within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.13
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.30
σ
Overall volatility
0.65
Ir
Information ratio 0.03

First Commonwealth Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of First Commonwealth for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for First Commonwealth can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
First Commonwealth had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
About 66.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors

First Commonwealth Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of First Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential First Commonwealth's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. First Commonwealth's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding93.4 M
Dividend Yield0.0296
Short Term Investments789.1 M

First Commonwealth Fundamentals Growth

First Stock prices reflect investors' perceptions of the future prospects and financial health of First Commonwealth, and First Commonwealth fundamentals are critical determinants of its market performance. Overall, investors pay close attention to revenue and earnings growth, profit margins, and debt levels. These fundamentals can have a significant impact on First Stock performance.

About First Commonwealth Performance

By analyzing First Commonwealth's fundamental ratios, stakeholders can gain valuable insights into First Commonwealth's financial health, operational efficiency, and overall profitability, helping them make informed investment and management decisions. For instance, if First Commonwealth has a high ROA and ROE, it suggests that the company is efficiently using its assets and equity to generate substantial profits, making it an attractive investment. Conversely, if First Commonwealth has a low ROA and ROE, it may indicate underlying issues in asset and equity management, signaling a need for operational improvements.
First Commonwealth Financial Corporation, through its subsidiaries, provides consumer and commercial banking services to individuals, and small and mid-sized businesses in the United States. First Commonwealth Financial Corporation was founded in 1934 and is headquartered in Indiana, Pennsylvania. First Commonwealth operates under Banks - Regional - US classification in Germany and is traded on Frankfurt Stock Exchange. It employs 1417 people.

Things to note about First Commonwealth performance evaluation

Checking the ongoing alerts about First Commonwealth for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Stock alerts and notifications screener for First Commonwealth help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
First Commonwealth had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
About 66.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Evaluating First Commonwealth's performance can involve analyzing a variety of financial metrics and factors. Some of the key considerations to evaluate First Commonwealth's stock performance include:
  • Analyzing First Commonwealth's financial statements, including its income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement, helps in understanding its overall financial health and growth potential.
  • Getting a closer look at valuation ratios like price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, and price-to-book (P/B) ratio help in understanding whether First Commonwealth's stock is overvalued or undervalued compared to its peers.
  • Examining First Commonwealth's industry or sector and how it is performing can give you an idea of its growth potential and how it is positioned relative to its competitors.
  • Evaluating First Commonwealth's management team can have a significant impact on its success or failure. Reviewing the track record and experience of First Commonwealth's management team can help you assess the Company's leadership.
  • Pay attention to analyst opinions and ratings of First Commonwealth's stock. These opinions can provide insight into First Commonwealth's potential for growth and whether the stock is currently undervalued or overvalued.
It's essential to remember that evaluating First Commonwealth's stock performance is not an exact science, and many factors can impact First Commonwealth's stock market price. Therefore, it's also important to diversify your portfolio and not rely solely on one company or stock for your investments.

Complementary Tools for First Stock analysis

When running First Commonwealth's price analysis, check to measure First Commonwealth's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy First Commonwealth is operating at the current time. Most of First Commonwealth's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of First Commonwealth's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move First Commonwealth's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of First Commonwealth to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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