Mesa Air Group Performance

MESADelisted Stock  USD 21.00  19.62  1,422%   
The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of -0.0301, which conveys not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Mesa Air are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Mesa Air is likely to outperform the market. At this point, Mesa Air Group has a negative expected return of -2.45%. Please make sure to verify Mesa Air's skewness, day typical price, and the relationship between the downside variance and daily balance of power , to decide if Mesa Air Group performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Weakest

 
Weak
 
Strong
Over the last 90 days Mesa Air Group has generated negative risk-adjusted returns adding no value to investors with long positions. Despite weak performance in the last few months, the Stock's basic indicators remain somewhat strong which may send shares a bit higher in March 2026. The current disturbance may also be a sign of long term up-swing for the company investors. ...more
Begin Period Cash Flow36.1 M
Total Cashflows From Investing Activities148.8 M
  

Mesa Air Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you would invest  2,505  in Mesa Air Group on November 15, 2025 and sell it today you would lose (405.00) from holding Mesa Air Group or give up 16.17% of portfolio value over 90 days. Mesa Air Group is currently does not generate positive expected returns and assumes 3.096% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 90 days horizon. In different words, 27% of stocks are less volatile than Mesa, and 99% of all traded equity instruments are projected to make higher returns than the company over the 90 days investment horizon.
  Expected Return   
       Risk  
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Mesa Air is expected to under-perform the market. In addition to that, the company is 3.99 times more volatile than its market benchmark. It trades about -0.79 of its total potential returns per unit of risk. The Dow Jones Industrial is currently generating roughly 0.13 per unit of volatility.

Mesa Air Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price

The tendency of Mesa Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 21.00 90 days 21.00 
about 45.11
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Mesa Air to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 45.11 (This Mesa Air Group probability density function shows the probability of Mesa Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Mesa Air Group has a beta of -0.0301. This indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Mesa Air are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Mesa Air Group is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Mesa Air Group has an alpha of 0.3043, implying that it can generate a 0.3 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Mesa Air Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Mesa Air

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Mesa Air Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Mesa Air's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
20.1023.2026.30
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
15.6018.7021.80
Details

Mesa Air Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Mesa Air is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Mesa Air's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Mesa Air Group, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Mesa Air within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.30
β
Beta against Dow Jones-0.03
σ
Overall volatility
1.71
Ir
Information ratio 0.07

Mesa Air Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Mesa Air for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Mesa Air Group can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Mesa Air Group is now traded under the symbol RJET. Please update your portfolios or report it if you believe this is an error. Report It!
Mesa Air Group is not yet fully synchronised with the market data
Mesa Air Group generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Mesa Air Group has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Mesa Air Group has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years
Mesa Air Group currently holds 319.87 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 1.59, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Mesa Air Group has a current ratio of 0.39, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about Mesa Air's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity.
The entity reported the previous year's revenue of 476.41 M. Net Loss for the year was (91.02 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 75.55 M.
About 23.0% of Mesa Air outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders

Mesa Air Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Mesa Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Mesa Air's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Mesa Air's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding41.1 M
Cash And Short Term Investments15.6 M

Mesa Air Fundamentals Growth

Mesa Stock prices reflect investors' perceptions of the future prospects and financial health of Mesa Air, and Mesa Air fundamentals are critical determinants of its market performance. Overall, investors pay close attention to revenue and earnings growth, profit margins, and debt levels. These fundamentals can have a significant impact on Mesa Stock performance.

About Mesa Air Performance

By analyzing Mesa Air's fundamental ratios, stakeholders can gain valuable insights into Mesa Air's financial health, operational efficiency, and overall profitability, helping them make informed investment and management decisions. For instance, if Mesa Air has a high ROA and ROE, it suggests that the company is efficiently using its assets and equity to generate substantial profits, making it an attractive investment. Conversely, if Mesa Air has a low ROA and ROE, it may indicate underlying issues in asset and equity management, signaling a need for operational improvements.
Mesa Air Group, Inc. operates as the holding company for Mesa Airlines, Inc. that provides regional air carrier services under capacity purchase agreements with the American Airlines and the United Airlines. Mesa Air Group, Inc. was founded in 1982 and is headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona. Mesa Air operates under Airlines classification in the United States and is traded on NASDAQ Exchange. It employs 2600 people.

Things to note about Mesa Air Group performance evaluation

Checking the ongoing alerts about Mesa Air for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Stock alerts and notifications screener for Mesa Air Group help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Mesa Air Group is now traded under the symbol RJET. Please update your portfolios or report it if you believe this is an error. Report It!
Mesa Air Group is not yet fully synchronised with the market data
Mesa Air Group generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Mesa Air Group has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Mesa Air Group has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years
Mesa Air Group currently holds 319.87 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 1.59, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Mesa Air Group has a current ratio of 0.39, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about Mesa Air's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity.
The entity reported the previous year's revenue of 476.41 M. Net Loss for the year was (91.02 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 75.55 M.
About 23.0% of Mesa Air outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders
Evaluating Mesa Air's performance can involve analyzing a variety of financial metrics and factors. Some of the key considerations to evaluate Mesa Air's stock performance include:
  • Analyzing Mesa Air's financial statements, including its income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement, helps in understanding its overall financial health and growth potential.
  • Getting a closer look at valuation ratios like price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, and price-to-book (P/B) ratio help in understanding whether Mesa Air's stock is overvalued or undervalued compared to its peers.
  • Examining Mesa Air's industry or sector and how it is performing can give you an idea of its growth potential and how it is positioned relative to its competitors.
  • Evaluating Mesa Air's management team can have a significant impact on its success or failure. Reviewing the track record and experience of Mesa Air's management team can help you assess the Company's leadership.
  • Pay attention to analyst opinions and ratings of Mesa Air's stock. These opinions can provide insight into Mesa Air's potential for growth and whether the stock is currently undervalued or overvalued.
It's essential to remember that evaluating Mesa Air's stock performance is not an exact science, and many factors can impact Mesa Air's stock market price. Therefore, it's also important to diversify your portfolio and not rely solely on one company or stock for your investments.
Check out Correlation Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in producer price index.
You can also try the Equity Search module to search for actively traded equities including funds and ETFs from over 30 global markets.

Other Consideration for investing in Mesa Stock

If you are still planning to invest in Mesa Air Group check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the Mesa Air's history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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