Octave Specialty Group Stock Performance
| OSG Stock | USD 6.04 0.07 1.15% |
The company holds a Beta of 0.91, which implies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. Octave Specialty returns are very sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Octave Specialty is expected to follow. At this point, Octave Specialty has a negative expected return of -0.8%. Please make sure to check Octave Specialty's treynor ratio, accumulation distribution, as well as the relationship between the Accumulation Distribution and price action indicator , to decide if Octave Specialty performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Risk-Adjusted Performance
Weakest
Weak | Strong |
Over the last 90 days Octave Specialty Group has generated negative risk-adjusted returns adding no value to investors with long positions. Despite unsteady performance in the last few months, the Stock's basic indicators remain nearly stable which may send shares a bit higher in March 2026. The current disturbance may also be a sign of long-run up-swing for the company stockholders. ...more
Actual Historical Performance (%)
One Day Return (1.15) | Five Day Return 0.5 | Year To Date Return (19.14) | Ten Year Return (52.85) | All Time Return (69.80) |
1 | Insiders Of Octave Specialty Group Reap Rewards After Their Investment Jumps Another US589k - simplywall.st | 11/12/2025 |
2 | Why Analysts Say Octaves Growth Story Is Changing After Acquisitions and Raised Price Targets | 11/28/2025 |
3 | 300,000 Shares in Ambac Financial Group, Inc. AMBC Purchased by Immersion Corp | 12/12/2025 |
4 | Disposition of 10053 shares by Mcginnis Daniel of Octave Specialty at 9.72 subject to Rule 16b-3 | 12/23/2025 |
5 | Acquisition by Stein Jeffrey Scott of 4524 shares of Octave Specialty subject to Rule 16b-3 | 12/31/2025 |
6 | Acquisition by Leblanc Claude of 12000 shares of Octave Specialty at 7.59 subject to Rule 16b-3 | 01/02/2026 |
7 | Claude LeBlanc Bought 1.2 percent More Shares In Octave Specialty Group | 01/07/2026 |
8 | Disposition of 16420 shares by David Trick of Octave Specialty at 8.34 subject to Rule 16b-3 | 01/08/2026 |
9 | OSG Announces Appointment of Doug OReilly as Chief Information Officer and Mark Marin as Chief Revenue Officer | 01/22/2026 |
10 | Acquisition by Smith R Sharon of 35307 shares of Octave Specialty subject to Rule 16b-3 | 02/06/2026 |
| Begin Period Cash Flow | 19.2 M | |
| Total Cashflows From Investing Activities | -166.4 M |
Octave Specialty Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape
If you would invest 991.00 in Octave Specialty Group on November 12, 2025 and sell it today you would lose (387.00) from holding Octave Specialty Group or give up 39.05% of portfolio value over 90 days. Octave Specialty Group is generating negative expected returns assuming volatility of 2.2676% on return distribution over 90 days investment horizon. In other words, 20% of stocks are less volatile than Octave, and above 99% of all equities are expected to generate higher returns over the next 90 days. Expected Return |
| Risk |
Octave Specialty Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price
The tendency of Octave Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move above the current price in 90 days |
| 6.04 | 90 days | 6.04 | about 90.62 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Octave Specialty to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 90.62 (This Octave Specialty Group probability density function shows the probability of Octave Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Octave Specialty Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Octave Specialty
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Octave Specialty. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Octave Specialty's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Octave Specialty Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Octave Specialty is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Octave Specialty's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Octave Specialty Group, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Octave Specialty within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.52 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.91 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.26 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.17 |
Octave Specialty Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Octave Specialty for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Octave Specialty can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Octave Specialty generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Octave Specialty Group was previously known as Ambac Financial Group and was traded on New York Stock Exchange under the symbol AMBC. | |
| Octave Specialty Group has 150 M in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 1.71, which is OK given its current industry classification. Octave Specialty has a current ratio of 0.74, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. That said, strategic use of leverage may enable Octave to fund expansion initiatives and generate superior returns. | |
| The entity reported the last year's revenue of 235.81 M. Reported Net Loss for the year was (58.92 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 147.31 M. | |
| Over 90.0% of Octave Specialty shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from prnewswire.com: OSG Announces Appointment of Doug OReilly as Chief Information Officer and Mark Marin as Chief Revenue Officer |
Octave Specialty Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Octave Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Octave Specialty's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Octave Specialty's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 47 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 331.9 M |
Octave Specialty Fundamentals Growth
Octave Stock prices reflect investors' perceptions of the future prospects and financial health of Octave Specialty, and Octave Specialty fundamentals are critical determinants of its market performance. Overall, investors pay close attention to revenue and earnings growth, profit margins, and debt levels. These fundamentals can have a significant impact on Octave Stock performance.
| Return On Equity | -0.0576 | ||||
| Return On Asset | -0.0057 | ||||
| Operating Margin | (0.25) % | ||||
| Current Valuation | 328.96 M | ||||
| Price To Earning | 8.76 X | ||||
| Price To Book | 0.45 X | ||||
| Price To Sales | 1.67 X | ||||
| Revenue | 235.81 M | ||||
| Gross Profit | 147.31 M | ||||
| EBITDA | (30.52 M) | ||||
| Net Income | (58.92 M) | ||||
| Cash And Equivalents | 29.61 M | ||||
| Cash Per Share | 0.96 X | ||||
| Total Debt | 150 M | ||||
| Debt To Equity | 1.71 % | ||||
| Current Ratio | 0.75 X | ||||
| Book Value Per Share | 18.06 X | ||||
| Cash Flow From Operations | 762 K | ||||
| Earnings Per Share | (0.98) X | ||||
| Market Capitalization | 611.54 M | ||||
| Total Asset | 8.06 B | ||||
| Retained Earnings | 742.18 M | ||||
| Working Capital | (54.9 M) | ||||
| Current Asset | 623.93 M | ||||
| Current Liabilities | 154.28 M | ||||
About Octave Specialty Performance
By analyzing Octave Specialty's fundamental ratios, stakeholders can gain valuable insights into Octave Specialty's financial health, operational efficiency, and overall profitability, helping them make informed investment and management decisions. For instance, if Octave Specialty has a high ROA and ROE, it suggests that the company is efficiently using its assets and equity to generate substantial profits, making it an attractive investment. Conversely, if Octave Specialty has a low ROA and ROE, it may indicate underlying issues in asset and equity management, signaling a need for operational improvements.
| Last Reported | Projected for Next Year | ||
| Days Of Inventory On Hand | -19.8 K | -20.8 K | |
| Return On Tangible Assets | (0.09) | (0.08) | |
| Return On Capital Employed | (0.01) | (0.01) | |
| Return On Assets | (0.08) | (0.08) | |
| Return On Equity | (0.58) | (0.56) |
Things to note about Octave Specialty performance evaluation
Checking the ongoing alerts about Octave Specialty for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Stock alerts and notifications screener for Octave Specialty help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Octave Specialty generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Octave Specialty Group was previously known as Ambac Financial Group and was traded on New York Stock Exchange under the symbol AMBC. | |
| Octave Specialty Group has 150 M in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 1.71, which is OK given its current industry classification. Octave Specialty has a current ratio of 0.74, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. That said, strategic use of leverage may enable Octave to fund expansion initiatives and generate superior returns. | |
| The entity reported the last year's revenue of 235.81 M. Reported Net Loss for the year was (58.92 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 147.31 M. | |
| Over 90.0% of Octave Specialty shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from prnewswire.com: OSG Announces Appointment of Doug OReilly as Chief Information Officer and Mark Marin as Chief Revenue Officer |
- Analyzing Octave Specialty's financial statements, including its income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement, helps in understanding its overall financial health and growth potential.
- Getting a closer look at valuation ratios like price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, and price-to-book (P/B) ratio help in understanding whether Octave Specialty's stock is overvalued or undervalued compared to its peers.
- Examining Octave Specialty's industry or sector and how it is performing can give you an idea of its growth potential and how it is positioned relative to its competitors.
- Evaluating Octave Specialty's management team can have a significant impact on its success or failure. Reviewing the track record and experience of Octave Specialty's management team can help you assess the Company's leadership.
- Pay attention to analyst opinions and ratings of Octave Specialty's stock. These opinions can provide insight into Octave Specialty's potential for growth and whether the stock is currently undervalued or overvalued.
Complementary Tools for Octave Stock analysis
When running Octave Specialty's price analysis, check to measure Octave Specialty's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Octave Specialty is operating at the current time. Most of Octave Specialty's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Octave Specialty's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Octave Specialty's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Octave Specialty to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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