Smith Douglas Homes Stock Performance

SDHC Stock   17.90  0.04  0.22%   
Smith Douglas has a performance score of 2 on a scale of 0 to 100. The entity has a beta of 1.97, which indicates a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Smith Douglas will likely underperform. Smith Douglas Homes right now has a risk of 3.79%. Please validate Smith Douglas total risk alpha, downside variance, daily balance of power, as well as the relationship between the maximum drawdown and skewness , to decide if Smith Douglas will be following its existing price patterns.

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Weak

 
Weak
 
Strong
Compared to the overall equity markets, risk-adjusted returns on investments in Smith Douglas Homes are ranked lower than 2 (%) of all global equities and portfolios over the last 90 days. In spite of rather uncertain technical indicators, Smith Douglas may actually be approaching a critical reversion point that can send shares even higher in March 2026. ...more

Actual Historical Performance (%)

One Day Return
(0.22)
Five Day Return
0.51
Year To Date Return
6.23
Ten Year Return
(25.42)
All Time Return
(25.42)
1
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Begin Period Cash Flow19.8 M
Total Cashflows From Investing Activities-4.7 M

Smith Douglas Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you would invest  1,738  in Smith Douglas Homes on November 9, 2025 and sell it today you would earn a total of  52.00  from holding Smith Douglas Homes or generate 2.99% return on investment over 90 days. Smith Douglas Homes is currently generating 0.1185% in daily expected returns and assumes 3.791% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 90 days horizon. In different words, 34% of stocks are less volatile than Smith, and 98% of all traded equity instruments are projected to make higher returns than the company over the 90 days investment horizon.
  Expected Return   
       Risk  
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Smith Douglas is expected to generate 4.63 times more return on investment than the market. However, the company is 4.63 times more volatile than its market benchmark. It trades about 0.03 of its potential returns per unit of risk. The Dow Jones Industrial is currently generating roughly 0.12 per unit of risk.

Smith Douglas Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price

The tendency of Smith Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 17.90 90 days 17.90 
about 71.47
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Smith Douglas to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 71.47 (This Smith Douglas Homes probability density function shows the probability of Smith Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.97 . This usually implies as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Smith Douglas will likely underperform. Additionally Smith Douglas Homes has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   Smith Douglas Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Smith Douglas

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Smith Douglas Homes. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
14.2818.0721.86
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
12.2516.0419.83
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
10.7814.5718.36
Details
6 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
15.0216.5018.32
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Smith Douglas. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Smith Douglas' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Smith Douglas' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Smith Douglas Homes.

Smith Douglas Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Smith Douglas is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Smith Douglas' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Smith Douglas Homes, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Smith Douglas within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.09
β
Beta against Dow Jones1.97
σ
Overall volatility
1.64
Ir
Information ratio -0.0038

Smith Douglas Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Smith Douglas for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Smith Douglas Homes can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Smith Douglas Homes had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
Over 98.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from simplywall.st: We Think Smith Douglas Homes Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt

Smith Douglas Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Smith Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Smith Douglas' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Smith Douglas' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding8.8 M
Cash And Short Term Investments22.4 M

Smith Douglas Fundamentals Growth

Smith Stock prices reflect investors' perceptions of the future prospects and financial health of Smith Douglas, and Smith Douglas fundamentals are critical determinants of its market performance. Overall, investors pay close attention to revenue and earnings growth, profit margins, and debt levels. These fundamentals can have a significant impact on Smith Stock performance.

About Smith Douglas Performance

By analyzing Smith Douglas' fundamental ratios, stakeholders can gain valuable insights into Smith Douglas' financial health, operational efficiency, and overall profitability, helping them make informed investment and management decisions. For instance, if Smith Douglas has a high ROA and ROE, it suggests that the company is efficiently using its assets and equity to generate substantial profits, making it an attractive investment. Conversely, if Smith Douglas has a low ROA and ROE, it may indicate underlying issues in asset and equity management, signaling a need for operational improvements.
Last ReportedProjected for Next Year
Days Of Inventory On Hand 126.78  101.63 
Return On Tangible Assets 0.04  0.04 
Return On Capital Employed 0.32  0.54 
Return On Assets 0.04  0.04 
Return On Equity 0.25  0.24 

Things to note about Smith Douglas Homes performance evaluation

Checking the ongoing alerts about Smith Douglas for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Stock alerts and notifications screener for Smith Douglas Homes help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Smith Douglas Homes had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
Over 98.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from simplywall.st: We Think Smith Douglas Homes Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt
Evaluating Smith Douglas' performance can involve analyzing a variety of financial metrics and factors. Some of the key considerations to evaluate Smith Douglas' stock performance include:
  • Analyzing Smith Douglas' financial statements, including its income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement, helps in understanding its overall financial health and growth potential.
  • Getting a closer look at valuation ratios like price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, and price-to-book (P/B) ratio help in understanding whether Smith Douglas' stock is overvalued or undervalued compared to its peers.
  • Examining Smith Douglas' industry or sector and how it is performing can give you an idea of its growth potential and how it is positioned relative to its competitors.
  • Evaluating Smith Douglas' management team can have a significant impact on its success or failure. Reviewing the track record and experience of Smith Douglas' management team can help you assess the Company's leadership.
  • Pay attention to analyst opinions and ratings of Smith Douglas' stock. These opinions can provide insight into Smith Douglas' potential for growth and whether the stock is currently undervalued or overvalued.
It's essential to remember that evaluating Smith Douglas' stock performance is not an exact science, and many factors can impact Smith Douglas' stock market price. Therefore, it's also important to diversify your portfolio and not rely solely on one company or stock for your investments.

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When running Smith Douglas' price analysis, check to measure Smith Douglas' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Smith Douglas is operating at the current time. Most of Smith Douglas' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Smith Douglas' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Smith Douglas' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Smith Douglas to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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