Megashort 20 Year Etf Performance

TLTD Etf   18.47  0.31  1.65%   
The etf secures a Beta (Market Risk) of -0.27, which conveys not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning MegaShort are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, MegaShort is likely to outperform the market.

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Fair

 
Weak
 
Strong
Compared to the overall equity markets, risk-adjusted returns on investments in MegaShort 20 Year are ranked lower than 9 (%) of all global equities and portfolios over the last 90 days. In spite of very unfluctuating basic indicators, MegaShort displayed solid returns over the last few months and may actually be approaching a breakup point. ...more
  

MegaShort Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you would invest  1,636  in MegaShort 20 Year on October 29, 2025 and sell it today you would earn a total of  211.00  from holding MegaShort 20 Year or generate 12.9% return on investment over 90 days. MegaShort 20 Year is generating 0.2151% of daily returns and assumes 1.8094% volatility on return distribution over the 90 days horizon. Simply put, 16% of etfs are less volatile than MegaShort, and 96% of all equity instruments are likely to generate higher returns than the company over the next 90 trading days.
  Expected Return   
       Risk  
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon MegaShort is expected to generate 2.42 times more return on investment than the market. However, the company is 2.42 times more volatile than its market benchmark. It trades about 0.12 of its potential returns per unit of risk. The Dow Jones Industrial is currently generating roughly 0.09 per unit of risk.

MegaShort Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price

The tendency of MegaShort Etf price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 18.47 90 days 18.47 
about 23.06
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of MegaShort to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 23.06 (This MegaShort 20 Year probability density function shows the probability of MegaShort Etf to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon MegaShort 20 Year has a beta of -0.27. This usually implies as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding MegaShort are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, MegaShort 20 Year is likely to outperform the market. Additionally MegaShort 20 Year has an alpha of 0.2031, implying that it can generate a 0.2 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   MegaShort Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for MegaShort

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as MegaShort 20 Year. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

MegaShort Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. MegaShort is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the MegaShort's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold MegaShort 20 Year, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of MegaShort within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.20
β
Beta against Dow Jones-0.27
σ
Overall volatility
0.57
Ir
Information ratio 0.06