Vanguard California Intermediate Term Fund Manager Performance Evaluation

VCADX Fund  USD 11.61  0.01  0.09%   
The entity has a beta of 0.0183, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Vanguard California's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Vanguard California is expected to be smaller as well.

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Good

 
Weak
 
Strong
Compared to the overall equity markets, risk-adjusted returns on investments in Vanguard California Intermediate Term are ranked lower than 14 (%) of all funds and portfolios of funds over the last 90 days. In spite of fairly strong fundamental indicators, Vanguard California is not utilizing all of its potentials. The current stock price disturbance, may contribute to short-term losses for the investors.
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Vanguard California Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you would invest  1,149  in Vanguard California Intermediate Term on October 28, 2025 and sell it today you would earn a total of  12.00  from holding Vanguard California Intermediate Term or generate 1.04% return on investment over 90 days. Vanguard California Intermediate Term is currently producing 0.0171% returns and takes up 0.0934% volatility of returns over 90 trading days. Put another way, 0% of traded mutual funds are less volatile than Vanguard, and 99% of all traded equity instruments are likely to generate higher returns over the next 90 trading days.
  Expected Return   
       Risk  
Assuming the 90 days horizon Vanguard California is expected to generate 2.91 times less return on investment than the market. But when comparing it to its historical volatility, the company is 7.9 times less risky than the market. It trades about 0.18 of its potential returns per unit of risk. The Dow Jones Industrial is currently generating roughly 0.07 of returns per unit of risk over similar time horizon.

Vanguard California Current Valuation

Overvalued
Today
11.61
Please note that Vanguard California's price fluctuation is very steady at this time. At this time, the fund appears to be overvalued. Vanguard California has a current Real Value of $10.67 per share. The regular price of the fund is $11.61. We determine the value of Vanguard California from inspecting fund fundamentals and technical indicators as well as its Probability Of Bankruptcy. In general, we recommend acquiring undervalued mutual funds and dropping overvalued mutual funds since, at some point, mutual fund prices and their ongoing real values will draw towards each other.
Since Vanguard California is currently traded on the exchange, buyers and sellers on that exchange determine the market value of Vanguard Mutual Fund. However, Vanguard California's intrinsic value may or may not be the same as its current market price, in which case there is an opportunity to profit from the mispricing, assuming the market price will eventually merge with its intrinsic value.
Historical Market  11.61 Real  10.67 Hype  11.61 Naive  11.57
The intrinsic value of Vanguard California's stock can be calculated using various methods such as discounted cash flow analysis, price-to-earnings ratio, or price-to-book ratio. That value may differ from its current market price, which is determined by supply and demand factors such as investor sentiment, market trends, news, and other external factors that may influence Vanguard California's stock price. It is important to note that the real value of any stock may change over time based on changes in the company's performance.
10.67
Real Value
12.77
Upside
Estimating the potential upside or downside of Vanguard California Intermediate Term helps investors to forecast how Vanguard mutual fund's addition to their portfolios will impact the overall performance. We also use other valuation drivers to help us estimate the true value of Vanguard California more accurately as focusing exclusively on Vanguard California's fundamentals will not take into account other important factors:
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
11.5011.5811.66
Details
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
11.5211.6111.70
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
11.4811.5711.67
Details
Below is the normalized historical share price chart for Vanguard California Intermediate Term extending back to November 12, 2001. This chart has been adjusted for all splits and dividends and is plotted against all major global economic recessions. As of today, the current price of Vanguard California stands at 11.61, as last reported on the 26th of January, with the highest price reaching 11.61 and the lowest price hitting 11.61 during the day.
 
Housing Crash
 
Credit Downgrade
 
Yuan Drop
 
Covid
 
Interest Hikes

Vanguard California Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price

The tendency of Vanguard Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 11.61 90 days 11.61 
under 4
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Vanguard California to move above the current price in 90 days from now is under 4 (This Vanguard California Intermediate Term probability density function shows the probability of Vanguard Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Vanguard California has a beta of 0.0183. This entails as returns on the market go up, Vanguard California average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Vanguard California Intermediate Term will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Vanguard California Intermediate Term has an alpha of 0.0059, implying that it can generate a 0.005853 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Vanguard California Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Vanguard California

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Vanguard California. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Vanguard California's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
11.5211.6111.70
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
10.5810.6712.77
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
11.4811.5711.67
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
11.5011.5811.66
Details

Vanguard California Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Vanguard California is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Vanguard California's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Vanguard California Intermediate Term, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Vanguard California within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.01
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.02
σ
Overall volatility
0.04
Ir
Information ratio -0.67

Vanguard California Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Vanguard California for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Vanguard California can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The fund keeps about 99.8% of its net assets in bonds

Vanguard California Fundamentals Growth

Vanguard Mutual Fund prices reflect investors' perceptions of the future prospects and financial health of Vanguard California, and Vanguard California fundamentals are critical determinants of its market performance. Overall, investors pay close attention to revenue and earnings growth, profit margins, and debt levels. These fundamentals can have a significant impact on Vanguard Mutual Fund performance.

About Vanguard California Performance

Evaluating Vanguard California's performance through its fundamental ratios, provides valuable insights into its operational efficiency and profitability. For instance, if Vanguard California has a high ROA and ROE, it suggests that the company is efficiently using its assets and equity to generate substantial profits, making it an attractive investment. Conversely, if Vanguard California has a low ROA and ROE, it may indicate underlying issues in asset and equity management, signaling a need for operational improvements. Please also refer to our technical analysis and fundamental analysis pages.
The fund invests primarily in high-quality municipal bonds issued by California state and local governments, as well as by regional governmental and public financing authorities. At least 80 percent of its assets will be invested in securities whose income is exempt from federal and California state taxes. Although the fund has no limitations on the maturities of individual securities, its dollar-weighted average maturity is expected to be between 6 and 12 years. The fund is non-diversified.

Things to note about Vanguard California performance evaluation

Checking the ongoing alerts about Vanguard California for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Mutual Fund alerts and notifications screener for Vanguard California help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The fund keeps about 99.8% of its net assets in bonds
Evaluating Vanguard California's performance can involve analyzing a variety of financial metrics and factors. Some of the key considerations to evaluate Vanguard California's mutual fund performance include:
  • Analyzing Vanguard California's financial statements, including its income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement, helps in understanding its overall financial health and growth potential.
  • Getting a closer look at valuation ratios like price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, and price-to-book (P/B) ratio help in understanding whether Vanguard California's stock is overvalued or undervalued compared to its peers.
  • Examining Vanguard California's industry or sector and how it is performing can give you an idea of its growth potential and how it is positioned relative to its competitors.
  • Evaluating Vanguard California's management team can have a significant impact on its success or failure. Reviewing the track record and experience of Vanguard California's management team can help you assess the Mutual Fund's leadership.
  • Pay attention to analyst opinions and ratings of Vanguard California's mutual fund. These opinions can provide insight into Vanguard California's potential for growth and whether the stock is currently undervalued or overvalued.
It's essential to remember that evaluating Vanguard California's mutual fund performance is not an exact science, and many factors can impact Vanguard California's mutual fund market price. Therefore, it's also important to diversify your portfolio and not rely solely on one company or stock for your investments.

Other Information on Investing in Vanguard Mutual Fund

Vanguard California financial ratios help investors to determine whether Vanguard Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Vanguard with respect to the benefits of owning Vanguard California security.
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